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To: nspolar who wrote (65725)	2/9/2003 4:06:51 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

From Brian: On Gold Hey Mish - I have the $XAU on the Chartlist, but I don't have a count on it because there is nothing that seems clear to these eyes yet. Nnpolar is right about the drop from June 2002 going below the supposed wave 1 high - a wave 4 correction would not do that. The $HUI, the gold only index, does not violate that rule. There are those that argue that this divergence between the HUI and the XAU (really between gold and silver) is a confirmation that there is another down led to go with both gold and silver after the current rise. Personally, I realy don't know either way. Besides the count itself on the HUI, there is one other hint that the HUI may be in a wave 5. The correction from June 2002 can also be counted a symmentrical triangle - which only occurs in a wave 4 position in a impulse (before the last wave up). You can see it in the purple count: tinyurl.com All of the waves in that triangle are 3's, just as they should be in a triangle. And if that is a triangle, it may be that wave 5 was only partially completed, with wave 1 of 5 ending at 154.92. Or that could have been the end of wave 5 altogether. Like he said, only time will tell. If I were in gold stocks right now (which I'm not), and I was investing based on the EW count, I would probably sell my positions now with the intention of re-entering long if the HUI moved above 154.92. The correction from 154.92 looks like a Flat that may be almost done, and if so the HUI should advance above that high. If Nnpolar is correct, and this is wave 3, there will be plently of upside to catch beyond 155. If, OTOH, 154.92 was THE high of wave 5 there will be no way of confirming it until the HUI declines below the 115 area, which is where wave 5 started (based on the purple count). Looks like 14 points for an upside confirmation, and 25 points for a downside confirmation - which is why I would be out. Thanks for posting that chart on other boards you visit - these EW debates are really good. I've tried to register for SI, but for some reason I always have a problem with the cookies and it doesn't work - even when I completely disable the security on my browser. Oh well. All the Best, Brian