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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (72258)	2/7/2003 8:21:54 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Perhaps, if they are faced with the threat of expulsion, they will regroup around Arafat. And perhaps Arafat will yield on the Right Of Return (the deal-breaker at Taba). That's the only road to peace I see, and I agree it's a long shot. A very long shot indeed, especially as there is ZERO chance that the Israelis will offer such a deal to Arafat ever again. He has worn out his credit entirely. There will have to be a succession among the Palestinians to somebody who intends to form a government, not the violent semi-chaos preferred by Arafat, and who will deal with Israel. More likely, Hamas will continue to grow in power, the Intifada will continue, Americans will gradually come to agree with Israel that the Palestinian organizations are equivalent to Al Queda. Eventually, much or all of the Palestinian population is forced into Jordan. Unfortunately, this has several further consequences: 1. many years more of war. 2. less cooperation from Muslim nations, with the U.S. WarOnTerrorism. I really doubt the Palestinians will be forced into Jordan. Only the far right in Israel is even talking about this, and that's after two years of intifada. I do not believe that a nation of Holocaust survivors will ever force civilian men, women and children onto trucks at gunpoint. Those implicated in the terror, that's a different story. What the Palestinians will steadily lose as time goes on is territory - the Israelis offered 97% net at Taba, but once the security wall goes up (and it's not going up right on the Green Line), it will become a political wall as well. As for the consequences, that depends on what happens in Arab politics, which I cannot foretell. You're probably right, but we must remember that Palestine functions as a purely symbolic and identity issue for the Arabs. Therefore the actual conditions of Palestinians may or may not affect the issue. As is plain to see by the way all Arab countries save Jordan have treated the Palestinian refugees, they don't actually give a damn about them for any humanitarian reasons. In fact, they have done everything in their power to exacerbate Palestinian suffering for the sake of the cause of "Palestine".