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To: John Madarasz who wrote (65729)	2/7/2003 9:51:24 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 209892

Actually, SPX 875 is Max Pain for Feb, so you're not out of your mind or anything <G>

To: John Madarasz who wrote (65729)	2/7/2003 9:58:00 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

From Brian The count looks clear, and what is better is that there is a good stop point in place. A rise above 846 on the S&P would probably mean another count has traced out, and that the count on the 60-min. chart is no good. But barring that: Feb 7: The BP chart and the Summation continue their freefall, and these should be listened to regardless of the Elliott Wave count - they are signaling a strong move. The P/C MA's are just beginning a move that will likely take them to the top of the channel (or above), and the other charts on page 2 (like the New High/New Low and the Stocks over their 50 DMA's) are just beginning their path to another spike down. The VIX is already near 40, and the S&P isn't even halfway through 5 waves - is there a large spike coming with this decline? There is a long way to go before we sleep... Right now, though, the EW count is also pointing down. The weekly close of 829 is below the last major Fibonacci retracement at 839, and leaves the October lows wide open - especially give the nature of the rise off those lows. The 78.6% retracement is at 808 might provide a temporary respite along the way. As far as the count goes, it looks like the S&P completed wave (ii) (red) with the ending diagonal on Monday and has been tracing out the necessary 1's and 2's since then. If the above count is correct, next week should be a hard down week. Today's high of 846 looked like wave C of a Flat correction from Thursday's lows. In the immediate-term, a cross of 846 would invalidate the wave 2 (blue) count, which would be a sign that the current count is wrong. In the intermediate-term, the wave 1 (grey) low of 840 should not be crossed after the S&P gets through more of this wave 3 (grey) down. For now, stops just above 846 on the S&P for shorting SPY shares. One other thing I have wanted to mention is that EWI has been saying for a few months now that this decline will take out a lot of the technical lows of Bear market thus far. Things like the SPX/VIX, BPI, Summation, New-High/New-Low and the $NYA50 should all register new lows this spring. In this 3rd degree wave 3, what constitutes "oversold" will probably be redefined down. Just FYI. Hope you all made some money this week. Did Gold just complete 5 waves from 2001? tinyurl.com The HUI diverged with that spike. It also can be counted with 5 waves from 2001. Time will tell. tinyurl.com Corporates are still showing a negative divergence. tinyurl.com All the Best, Brian