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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (28543)	2/7/2003 11:14:12 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi tippet, <<If it takes a tax credit to make a profit or continued faith in a government contract, think more about singularities and less about the continuum>> I agree, but the tax credit is currently no longer in force, the shares of the windy companies cratered as a result, and so we are set up for recovery play;0) <<Fuel cells ... dead ends as standalone enterprises>> Possibly, and therefore I am playing platinum as a resource, as opposed to playing the fuel cell companies as high tech. Platinum story is good ... China consumed 50% of 2002 world output, now marketed in India as jewelry as well, hard disk drive use now, fuel cell use later, and every so often, Russian mine strike to boost SAfrican and Zimbabwe shares. For example, my ZIM.AX (bought in July and December of 2002) had risen 40% for overall position. <<3 commodities: Oil, Natural Gas and Gold -- no one believes them?? All the commodities are up ... the shares just sit... What's different this time, in your opinion?>> My buddies and I were just discussing this point while on the beach. We do not know, and we are guessing ... (a) folks believe the economy will weaken and thus hurt oil and natural gas shares; (b) folks believe end of winter will see natural gas price collapse; (c) folks believe Iraq War will mean cheaper oil; (d) folks believe Iraq War resolution will see gold price collapse. I think, if so, then the crowd may be wrong about at least gold, at least in the 1-3 year term, because gold's rise is only partially linked to the impending war, and has more to do with overall breakdown of financial and geopolitical order. Either the equity lovers are making excuses for a generally down-trending market, or the gold bulls are making excuses for why the mine shares are not rising, forgetting that many of the miners had risen much already. I am content to be long physical and paper gold, somewhat long on mining shares, and play the straddle until kingdom come;0) Chugs, Jay