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Technology Stocks : Advanced Fibre (AFCI) ** IPO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ehasfjord who wrote (3275)	2/9/2003 1:55:53 AM
From: chojiro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3299

Looking for other opinions. It's been about three years since I even looked at this stock or chart. But if I were to look at the chart and ignore the stock symbol I'd have to say it doesn't look half bad And trying to settle in with a bottom here in the 15-17 area. However. I don't know what parameters you are using for your RSI; I have readings closer to about 48 on the way up. So technically I could see it continue to rally a few bucks But it will also need help from rising broader markets. Anyhow, enough for the chart. Reading over the last earnings report Try as I did, I couldn't find a single thing tp get bullish about. I've always been turned off by companies that every quarter have some type of "one time charge" for this or that. It's almost embarrassing how they abuse pro forma reporting. I don't mean to single AFCI out, many if not most other tech, telco companies abuse it as well. Yet that is no excuse! Also, they have a(TTM) PE of over 45, not quite the bargain one would imagine at the bottom of a bear cycle. I used to get a lot of flack for using TTM PEs but at this point it almost seems more favorable to look at it in this light. In this environment, you'll notice the only people bullish on the future are analysts. Most CEOs today will wisely not even dare to give guidance for the next quarter Let alone a year out. That tells me we're most likely looking at flat YoY growth at best. And if those involved in the company's business know better than analysts the next thing to look at would be insider activity. Right? The picture there is even less encouraging. Here we have a CEO who earned over 500, close to $600K Yet still cashed in well over $5M last year in options. I guess what I am saying is it might be good for a trade on the long side if you're nimble But the notion of investing money in this company would be akin to hunting for gold at the county dump. It is almost impressive though to see their revenues have not dried up completely. So with that note I suppose I would cast it in a slightly better light than a lot of other telecoms. Who knows, maybe one day... But for now there are IMO much better places to put one's money. Heck the short side of this one might prove to be a wiser play here. Anyhow, that is my opinion and 2 cents worth. If you want the full 25 cent opinion Let me know But I don't think that would be of any further benefit to anyone at this point. Good luck. P.S. If you care to Could you give me the 10 cent treatment on the deal with their CSCO shares? I see they are taking a "one time special" write off for that. I'd be curious if they did the same when they were realizing gains from that position. ie Include it in their pro forma number Or was it at that time considered part of their regular earnings?