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Strategies & Market Trends : Win Lose or Draw : Be A Steve, Make A Call -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffrey S. Lillie who wrote (1286)	2/8/2003 10:10:05 AM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11447

Rally Jeff, were do you research your data! You have to get better sources to base your trading on. Spend some money and get that data, it does not come for free. The market is going to crash, plain and simple, DOW will not see 8100 again now. You just cannot wake up and get with the trend, that will kill you my friend. Not bashing you here, just trying to get you to wake up and smell the roses. Oversold, look at the weekly stochs, I will give you that clue, we are far from oversold.

To: Jeffrey S. Lillie who wrote (1286)	2/8/2003 12:36:22 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11447

First off, bears are not over confident and shorting massively. Many have taken profits last few days. I would be better off if I did not. Second, specialist short ratios are quite low, so you are incorrect. Third, fund outflows do not support a rally. Fourth, calls for a rally to 900 from this point are patently absurd. They really are. Yes we can get a miracle rally if Hussein turns himself over to the US for trial but how likely is that? Perhaps we capture Bin Laden tomorrow. Rydex funds are tiny in comparison to other funds. Rydex Money is smart money except after washouts. We have not had a washout here. Far from it. Once again you are totally grasping for staws, praying for a miracle that will put some calls into the $. Max pain on the spoos is dropping. It is now down to 875 from 900. Why is it dropping? Because bears are cashing out profits and bulls are buying more calls. Those are the only things that can affect max pain, and a sinking max pain in a sinking market does not bode well, especially for February, one of the poorest market months (at least in recent history). With fund inflows spent, and fund outflows increasing, and bears taking profits, there is no fuel for a rally to 900. Not even close. Every day we chop lower (or consolodate at a the lows for a few days). Every day you stick with a rally call to 900. Do I think we are close to a rally point. Probably, but it might come from 775 not 830. Who knows? Right now, bears have the upper hand with every rally attempt being smacked. TRIN and TRINQ suggest selling and da boys like to buy low and sell hi. So far da boys are not showing much signs of buying. It would probably do you good at this point to just step away, wait for a rally and try to hop on it, or wait till we consolodate at some low point with a TRIN under .50 for a few days. That would be a decent chance. I think we rally towards (not necessarily to max pain), but I do not know from what level, nor do we know what max pain will even be at the time. Furthermore I could be wrong. February is one month where max pain has missed before if I am not mistaken. February can get ugly. At any rate, right now you are fighting the market, and hoping for rallies to 900 is not going to make that more likely. M

To: Jeffrey S. Lillie who wrote (1286)	2/8/2003 1:41:40 PM
From: byhiselo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 11447

although i'm modestly positioned for a bounce here, i think SPX 900 is way optimistic, in fact a close above 870 by the end of Feb would change the trend to up and trash my expectation of a significant low in march i think a bounce from here will be capped at the falling 13dma: DOW 8100 SPX 855-860 OEX 835 COMPX 1325 NDX 990 at this point, my plan is to sell my long hedges as we approach these levels and add back to shorts, expecting a bust thru the Oct lows in march a close above DOW 8155, SPX 870, and COMPX 1337 would be bullish imo, don't think we do it but open to the possibility, lets see cheers