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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (16191)	2/10/2003 8:42:44 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

I saw MacCavity's solution. While that is technically correct- it doesn't give much confidence when you have a subset of only one and a set of two. Maybe one could estimate the probability by taking his pessimistic 50% chance and combine with the more optimistic 10% chance. How would you do that? As an average? That would give 30%. Sounds reasonable. I'm not basing any purchases on it, either way. The bottom should reveal itself in the usual manner- with spike reversals in the VIX, NH-NL, etc. For the fun of it, here's a life exp. table. The std.dev. IS quite small once you reach the upper limits: personal.fidelity.com