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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (18004)	2/8/2003 1:09:28 PM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 206191

The SPR has to start flowing soon. Distillates will get whacked this month with this cold weather. Defending the 700 bcf line will be a tough battle with this weather. I would not be surprised if the March NG contract closes with parity to #2 oil prices. If Iraq is attacked before the March NG contract closes..... I see a train wreck within weeks. One of the things investors need to be concerned with when investing in IPP's is that with gas deliverability issues in the NE, many of the new generating plants that are gas only will not get gas. The present situation is presenting outcomes that developers gave an extremely low probability when they developed plants, if they considered it at all. Other facilities who have oil burning capabilities will be burning oil like mad.

To: russwinter who wrote (18004)	2/8/2003 1:35:44 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206191

>>> Maybe so, as alot of people seem TOHOE oblivious to what's transpiring. <<< Russ, I don't think a lot of people are oblivious to what's happening. I know I'm not, yet I'm not buying the E&P's either. I'm well aware of what the inventory levels look like, but we have a disconnect between commodity pricing and share prices. I'm waiting for the connection to be made again. We've had record draws the past three weeks and the XNG has fallen in each of those weeks. Weather has been cold and the XNG still continues to drop. If record draws, low inventories and cold weather can't push the XNG to new highs, what will? I think it's easy to forget that the market looks forward. The XNG rising to 173 took these recent draws into consideration, in my opinion. As I look at the long term chart of the XNG, I see that it was overbought and is now flashing a sell signal. (I use the Stochastic indicator to see this.) Now we are coming up on some support levels and the daily chart shows the XNG oversold on a short term basis, but I think the XNG is starting to price in shoulder season, which means we could see prices go much lower. stockcharts.com[h,a]waclynay[pb50!c20!f][iut!Ub14!Lh14,5!La12,26,9!Lah5,17,9]&pref=G I'm not locked into this view. I will watch how the XNG reacts to the support levels first, but rather than anticipate, the market is going to have to show me it can rally before I start guessing on hitting the lows. I think your view, and that of Que's and others will prevail in the long run, but from what level? For those who bought the XNG at 160 or 170, the profits may turn out to be minimal in the face of having had a good handle on the fundamentals, and not timing the buy points any better. The market doesn't concern itself with good or bad fundamentals. It merely matches orders between buyers and sellers. The market is only concerned with supply and demand. Right now there are more sellers than buyers. What will it take to bring the buyers back? That's where our focus should be. What is going to bring the buyers back? When they show up, I'll hop on board. Then I'll be rooting like hell that your fine analysis comes into play. I appreciate your input and I thank you for taking the time to share it with us. dabum