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Strategies & Market Trends : Win Lose or Draw : Be A Steve, Make A Call -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffrey S. Lillie who wrote (1305)	2/8/2003 5:20:22 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11447

Jeffery, I am going to try to react. If we gap up and start running, I hope to get in on it. I cleared out almost all puts. Depending on how Monday goes, I may add some back. I will post some max pain targets should an attempt be made to head that way. There is no guarantee of it. Were it not for max pain, I would happily be short here with no worries. The time to worry about max pain would start about Wed. I sure do not want to buy calls and have us plunge to 800. The price and price action show no reason to go long IMO. None. A good cace can be made for taking profits I suppose, but guessing to go long has been wrong for weeks. Eventually it had to be correct, but from what level I am unwilling to state right now. Being exceptionally light in puts, I sure as hell hope it starts monday and runds to 865. I doubt 870 can be taken out on any rally attempt. M

To: Jeffrey S. Lillie who wrote (1305)	2/8/2003 5:47:13 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11447

Max Pain on the spoos. Targets suggested. Max pain on the spoos is dropping. It is now down to 875 from 900. Why is it dropping? Because bears are cashing out profits and bulls are buying more calls. Those are the only things that can affect max pain, and a sinking max pain in a sinking market does not bode well, especially for February, one of the poorest market months (at least in recent history). Do I think we are close to a rally point? Probably, but it might come from 775 not 830. Who knows? Right now, bears have the upper hand with every rally attempt being smacked. TRIN suggests selling and da boys like to buy low and sell hi. So far da boys are not showing much signs of buying. I think we rally towards (not necessarily to max pain), but I do not know from what level, nor do we know what max pain will even be at the time. Furthermore I could be wrong. February is one month where max pain has missed before if I am not mistaken. February can get ugly. Looking at the OI, puts are clustered around 800 825 850 875. Looking at the OI, calls are clustered around 825 850 875 900. The likely targets IMO are 825, 850, and 875. At 825 there are 24K puts and 12K calls. At 850 there are 22K puts and 12K calls. At 875 there are 13K puts and 14K calls. At 900 there are 14K puts and 27K calls. I would tend to think that 825 holds, and if it doesn't it can get very ugly. If a max pain rally starts, I suggest we may get to the 850-860 area. If not, I would suspect that we bounce back up from below and at least prevent the puts at 825 from closing ITM. M