To: stockman_scott who wrote (12753 ) 2/10/2003 11:37:50 AM From: Crimson Ghost Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 89467 Consequences of War by Charlie Rease: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ I have no doubt that George Bush will launch an attack on Iraq, with or without United Nations Security Council approval. I have no doubt that the United States will win the war, though some Iraqi defectors have said recently that it might not be as easy as American officials think. But we will win. So let's look at what the consequences are likely to be: 1. American lives will be lost. I've heard some military brass refer to the 146 killed in the first Gulf War as "negligible." I personally don't think the loss of even one American life is negligible. I think the casualties will be much higher. The fact that Iraqi soldiers ran from Kuwait — whose invasion they didn't think much of in the first place — doesn't mean that they will run away from defending their homes, their wives and their children. 2. America will be morally discredited. We will have attacked a country with a population of 20 million that did not attack us. Nobody in the world except politicians in Washington and London (if them) believe that Iraq, so terribly weakened by the Gulf War and the sanctions, is a threat to anybody. How can President Bush keep saying Iraq is a threat to its neighbors, much less the world, when Iraq's neighbors keep saying, "No, it is not a threat"? Every one of Iraq's neighbors — Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iran and, most especially, Israel — is more powerful than Iraq. 3. The Islamic world will be enraged, and that's more than 1 billion people. Terrorism directed against the United States will be increased, not decreased. However we see it, the war will be seen as an attack against Islam, as an attempt by the United States to recolonize the Arab world and to establish between ourselves and Israel domination and hegemony. 4. The United States will be tied down in Iraq for a year or more. We should learn from the Israeli experience. They went into Lebanon like a hot knife through butter, but they found that they couldn't stay. We will find out the same thing in Iraq. Even if we install a puppet government, we'll have to prop it up or else it will be overthrown. 5. The war will cost us between $100 billion and $200 billion. The president has not budgeted for that expense. The war and its likely effect on oil prices will certainly damage and could wreck our economy. Nobody is going to help us pay for it. The Arabs in the Gulf States are already saying to America about Iraq, "You break it, you buy it." 6. The Middle East will be destabilized — to what extent, it's impossible to predict. Some now-friendly governments could be overthrown. Nearly all will be forced to change their attitude toward the United States to appease their people. The forces of extremism will be greatly strengthened, and the moderates will be greatly weakened and perhaps rendered completely ineffective. Again, we should learn from the Israelis. They have not been able to kill their way to security and peace. Every time they crush an enemy militarily, they generate more and more hatred. The Middle East is not a region where memories are short or where forgiveness has much of a standing. Revenge is deeply imbedded in the culture of that region. 7. Finally, the United States will have served notice on every other country in the world that it will launch a pre-emptive attack against any country it imagines might be a threat, directly or indirectly, in the future. If you want a formula for a dangerous, unstable world, that's it. No country in the world will trust us again.