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Politics : DON'T START THE WAR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: BubbaFred who wrote (6763)2/9/2003 1:19:15 AM
From: Brumar89  Respond to of 25898
 
Why the Left is wrong on Saddam

With or without a second UN resolution, I support action against Iraq

David Aaronovitch
Sunday February 2, 2003
The Observer

If you were to draw a map of the world based on the writings and speeches of the most fervent anti-war figures in Britain and America, two names would be found at the far edges of the known world, if at all: Bosnia and Rwanda. In the mid-1990s, events in these places convinced me that Noam Chomsky's definition of the sovereignty of nations as 'the right of political entities to be free from outside interference' had become a millstone around the neck of the world.
Bosnia and Rwanda made the case for action, because inaction was far worse and its consequences were morally intolerable. In the former, the West (rarely acting in concert) took the course of diplomacy backed up by the incredible threat of mild force. The Yugoslavian situation was deemed to be too complicated and too dangerous to resolve by firm action. Didn't they all just enjoy killing each other?
There were sanctions, international mediations, peace brokers shuttled hither and yon arranging ceasefires that were broken, usually by the Bosnian Serbs. The United Nations Security Council declared six safe areas for Bosnian Muslims to be protected by lightly equipped UN troops. One of these was Srebrenica.
On 11 July 1995, almost in slow motion, we watched the Serbs enter the safe haven, disarm the Dutch protectors and separate the men and boys from women and small children. And as I saw General Ratko Mladic pacifying a crying Muslim woman, I think I knew, as he certainly did, what was going to happen to her husband or son.
A year earlier, on another continent, we had again looked on while one of the peoples of a sovereign nation, Rwanda, slaughtered another in their hundreds of thousands. Once more, a small UN force was brushed aside in the early stages. Intervention was never seriously considered.
If leaders must take responsibility for these terrible failures, then so must those who always urge inaction. Over Bosnia, Kosovo and over Afghanistan, voices on both the Left and Right have been consistently raised to object to the use of force. Where these voices have belonged to pacifists, they have my respect, but most often they have belonged to the purely selfish, the pathologically timid, or to those who somehow believed that however bad things were in Country X, the Americans were always worse.
In last week's edition of the New Statesman, one of the latter, John Pilger, takes this newspaper to task for allowing that it might be right to depose the Iraqi dictator, Saddam Hussein, by force. Even suggesting such a thing, he said, was a betrayal of the great traditions of the newspaper. Pilger, of course, has a way of turning disagreements with him into betrayals of the entire human race. But for many of us, this has become the most difficult and painful judgment to make. It is the kind of issue that divides families and friends.
Nothing about Iraq is hard for Pilger. He was opposed to using force to get Iraq out of Kuwait, opposed to the containment of Saddam through the enforcement of the no-fly zones, dismissive of the threats to the Kurdish people of the North. Many in his camp were in a favour of sanctions when the alternative was force, and were against sanctions when the alternative was nothing.
It isn't like that here. In the offices of this newspaper, as you turn left out of the lift, just by the pigeonholes, is a photograph of a dead Observer journalist, Farzad Bazoft, who was hanged by Saddam Hussein in 1990. Bazoft's photo always has flowers beneath it, placed there by his family and friends. As the journalist Robert Fisk subsequently commented, it was characteristic of Saddam that the first Bazoft knew about his imminent execution was when a British diplomat turned up at his prison to say goodbye. Saddam joked that Mrs Thatcher had asked for Bazoft to be returned and now he was being returned 'in a box'.
Saddam Hussein, who both the West and the Soviet bloc shamefully lionised during the Cold War and tacitly supported as a counterweight to fundamentalist Iran, never was just another tyrant. Not only is his regime exceptionally brutal internally (and I mean exceptionally) and aggressive externally, but it is not a matter of contention that he made chemical and biological weapons, that he used some of them, and that he would have, if left alone, produced nuclear weapons. He should have been deposed by force in 1991 when, instead, the Iraqi opposition forces were effectively betrayed by the coalition.
I don't believe that Saddam is a major backer of al-Qaeda (though he gives support to other groups) and I think it quite likely that he has had no effective nuclear programme for years. He would if he could, but he can't. But I want him out, for the sake of the region (and therefore, eventually, for our sakes), but most particularly for the sake of the Iraqi people who cannot lift this yoke on their own. If they could, that would be best; if he would agree to go into exile, that would be just dandy. The argument that Saddam's removal will of necessity lead to 'chaos' or the democratic election of an unsuitable Islamist government is worthy of Henry Kissinger at his most cynical. It is pretty disgusting when heard in the mouths of 'left-wingers'.
The Iraqi people, however, can't shift their tyrant on their own. Again, it would be preferable if an invasion could be undertaken, not by the Americans, but by, say, the Nelson Mandela International Peace Force, spearheaded by the Rowan Williams British Brigade. That's not on offer. It has to be the Yanks.
I do not believe that George Bush is the manic oil-chimp of caricature. His administration really does have a view that it is necessary to remove Saddam pour décourager les autres. It will, they have convinced themselves, show resolve, deter state terrorism, discourage proliferation and permit the building of a rare non-tyranny in the Arab world. There is something to be said for all this.
What some in the White House cannot see (and what I think Tony Blair can) is why establishing some set of rules for intervention is so important. If intervention seems arbitrary and depends upon the strategic whims of particular administrations, then many are bound to interpret it merely as an expression of short-term American interests. It won't be a new world order, but simply a Pax Americana. This is a perception that would be bound to cause massive resentment and - in time - lead to real resistance. So UN resolutions matter. Like American military power, they're all we have.
If, in a few weeks time, the Security Council agrees to wage war against Saddam, I shall support it. If there is no resolution but the invasion goes ahead, I will not oppose it, though most of the people I like best will. I can't demonstrate against the liberation, however risky, of the Iraqi people.
As ever, though, war will have been the easy bit. Peace requires far more effort. There are some encouraging signs here. President Bush's announcement in the State of the Union speech (an announcement completely overlooked here) of an extra $10 billion on combating Aids around the world is simultaneously welcome, insufficient and tardy. But, above all, welcome. America did not cause the Aids epidemic, but as the world's richest nation it has a duty and an opportunity (with our help) to address it.
And if international activism is in vogue, and requires support, then it must deal with the greatest source of instability in the Middle East, if not in the world - Israel and Palestine. Here again, two peoples are held captive, not by tyrants, but by men of blood and their own weaknesses. It is surely time to consider the international imposition of a settlement which would provide statehood and some justice for the Palestinians and some security for Israel.
That is another article but not, as they say, another story.

observer.co.uk



To: BubbaFred who wrote (6763)2/9/2003 1:27:41 AM
From: BubbaFred  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25898
 
A disaster waiting to happen

observer.co.uk

Online commentary: Planning for the refugee crisis which would follow an attack on Iraq is woefully inadequate, argues a leading refugee policy expert

More World Today Essays

Iraq: Observer special

Gil Loescher
Sunday February 2, 2003

The pitiful sight of many thousands of Iraqi refugees moving into the mountains on the Turkish border after the 1991 Gulf war touched prime ministers and presidents worldwide. The policy of safe havens was born. But planning for any new refugee crisis is woefully inadequate.
There has been little public discussion about the possibility of a mass exodus of Iraqi refugees as a consequence of a US-led attack against Iraq. Nor has much onsideration been given to the implications of a refugee crisis on the security and stability of Iraq's immediate neighbours. Yet, as past humanitarian emergencies clearly demonstrate, early planning is essential for the uncertainties of military action.

Perhaps the most alarming feature of present contingency planning is the almost total lack of coordination between the US government and military, the UN agencies, and the non-governmental organisations (NGOs). The military has been unwilling to discuss its contingency plans or assumptions for fear of revealing its war strategy. Consequently, NGOs are left in a void, unable to know what other major actors are planning and prevented from making adequate plans because of government restrictions on their activities in Iraq and Iran.

Such lack of coordination is a cause for great alarm. It is impossible to predict with certainty that there will be a new Iraqi refugee crisis as a consequence of a possible war. The exact extent of any problem will ultimately be determined by the manner and duration of a military campaign and the internal political upheavals it might produce in Iraq during and after the conflict. While these risks are hard to quantify, it is clear that the mechanisms and resources needed to respond to worst case scenarios are not in place.

Uncertainty about the nature, intensity and duration of the conflict has complicated forward planning among UN relief and humanitarian agencies. They are working on mitigation and contingency responses for a range of scenarios. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is in discussion with Iraq's neighbours over their preparedness to receive large numbers of refugees in the event of war. The UNHCR and the International Committee of the Red Cross are stockpiling materials in the region.

However, UN agencies face considerable difficulties in mounting an effective emergency response. A major problem has been that Secretary-General Kofi Annan prohibited discussion of any UN-wide plans to prepare for a refugee crisis while the Security Council was debating Resolution 1441. The UNHCR could not, therefore, formally consult the US military regarding contingency planning, nor could it appeal to donor governments for emergency planning funds. While UNHCR finally requested emergency contingency planning funds and initial consultations got under way by mid-December, the delay has created a real risk of unpreparedness.

After several years of declining budgets, UNHCR's overall funding is precarious. Financial difficulties have led to cuts in the agency's emergency fund and have seriously affected its ability to mobilise resources for unanticipated humanitarian emergencies. It lacks sufficient numbers of senior and middle-ranking professionals to lead emergency responses. Shortage of surplus capacity and tight staffing may make it difficult to respond quickly and effectively to a major new crisis without seriously affecting work in current operations such as Afghanistan.

A potential UNHCR response will also depend on the course of the military campaign. Security considerations may make it impossible to operate during a full-blown conflict. Moreover, the UNHCR is ill prepared to deal with any possible use of weapons of mass destruction - its staff is not trained in the correct use of gas masks and decontaminants.

NGOs are no better prepared than the UN agencies to operate in a conflict where chemical or biological weapons are employed. Most are woefully short of both training and equipment to provide assistance in contaminated zones.

Many of the problems confronting the UN in planning, capacity and preparedness are duplicated in non-governmental organisations and the US government and military. All the major actors have been working on parallel, but separate, tracks that haven't allowed adequate coordination.

There is limited NGO ability to respond to a humanitarian crisis. One of the major problems is that very few such organisations operate in Iraq or neighbouring regions. In Afghanistan, Kosovo and other recent emergencies, NGOs had extensive networks and presence in nearby countries from which they could mount significant responses. The lack of such infrastructure means that agencies will find it difficult to meet humanitarian needs quickly.

Sanctions

One of the most important constraints on capacity building and preparedness is the sanctions regime targeted against Iraq, Iran and other so-called rogue states. US NGOs are forbidden to work in Iraq without a license from the Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) of the US Treasury. They need a license to travel to Iraq and to import anything from toothpaste to computer chips. Applying for licenses is cumbersome, taking between two and six months.

Similar sanctions are directed against Iran, which is likely to host large numbers of refugees in the event of war. By preventing NGOs from travelling to Iraq and limiting their activities in Iran, OFAC is preventing them effectively assessing the humanitarian needs of the Iraqi civilian population.

Without dialogue among all the actors, NGOs risk being unprepared. In the absence of immediate coordination, they also risk duplicate and irrelevant planning and encouraging destructive competition and turf battles. Inter-agency coordination and that between military forces and NGOs are probably the most difficult parts of any large-scale relief operation. Together with effective logistics support and the overall leadership of the relief effort, they are essential to the success of any refugee programme. Current prospects for overcoming these chronic management and coordination problems do not appear very promising.

Deliberate expulsion

Substantial numbers of refugees could result from any large-scale military attack on Iraq and the upheaval that could follow President Saddam Hussein's overthrow. Following Iraq's August 1990 invasion of Kuwait, some two million foreign nationals fled Kuwait and Iraq, flooding into nearby countries like Jordan and Yemen.

In the immediate aftermath of the 1991 Gulf war, Shi'as in the south and Kurds in the north spontaneously rose up and attempted to overthrow the Iraqi government. Saddam suppressed the revolts, leaving at least thirty thousand dead and displacing more than a million. Some seven hundred thousand crossed into Iran and about three hundred and fifty thousand massed on Iraq's border with Turkey. Turkey initially accepted some Kurdish refugees but quickly closed its border to them. The UN Security Council approved a resolution permitting a US-led military intervention to stem the refugee flows and restore stability in northern Iraq.

Since the early 1990s, the Iraqi government has relied on the deliberate expulsion of people from their homes to stamp out and punish political opposition and seize oil-rich areas and valuable land. In the north, there have been systematic efforts to 'Arabise' the predominantly Kurdish districts of Kirkuk, Khanaqin and Sinjar by expelling Kurds, Assyrians and Turkomans. In the south, Baghdad has carried out campaigns of suppression against the marsh Arabs and other Shi'a, destroying villages and draining marshland to hasten depopulation. There are well over a million internally displaced people in Iraq, with an estimated three-quarters of a million in northern Iraq alone.

In addition, over the last decade, between one and two million Iraqis are estimated to have fled their homeland. Most live in countries bordering Iraq or in the region: over two hundred and fifty thousand in Jordan, two hundred thousand in Iran, and forty thousand in Syria. Tens of thousands are in Lebanon and Turkey.

Assistance to refugees in these countries does not meet minimum international standards. In some cases, their freedom of movement is severely restricted; they are vulnerable to police harassment, beatings, sexual violence, extortion and possible deportation. Their chances of being offered resettlement in the US, Canada, Australia or Europe are extremely slim; they cannot integrate with local populations in the Middle East; they are refused permission to work; they live in limbo.

Consequently, many Iraqis risk their lives and those of their families by paying smugglers to help them reach the shores of western countries to seek asylum. The lack of safe refuge in the region, therefore, contributes to the so-called asylum crisis in Europe and elsewhere.

Outside the Middle East, the number of Iraqis looking for asylum has increased steadily. Between 1989 and the end of 2001, 277,500 Iraqis applied for asylum in western countries, mostly in Europe. They are now the largest national group of asylum seekers in Europe.

Disruption

Even without a war, there is already a worldwide Iraqi refugee crisis. A new conflict is likely to dramatically increase the number of those fleeing. According to the United Nations Children's Fund and other agencies, the vulnerable elements of Iraqi society suffer disproportionately from the effects of UN sanctions. Hundreds of thousands, especially children, are in a weakened and highly vulnerable state as a result of the collapse of the country's health services and water system.

Sixty percent of the population depends totally on food rations from the UN oil for food programme for basic nutrition. While the programme is administered by the UN in northern Iraq, in the centre and south it is in the hands of the Iraqi government. These supplies may be seriously disrupted if war breaks out.

Renewed conflict might also further damage the water, power, health and sanitation infrastructures and could interrupt vital supplies of fuel and medicines. A prolonged bombing campaign, aimed at breaking the will of the Iraqi regime, might cause great hardship and encourage large numbers of people, already on the margin of survival, to try to flee. It is also possible that Baghdad might try to create a humanitarian crisis that could slow any US invasion and increase international opposition to war.

There is a real risk of internal and external population movements following Saddam's overthrow. These could be worse should the immediate post-Saddam period also see inter-ethnic and religious disorder and civil strife. Most of the persecution in Iraq has been at local level. It seems likely, therefore, that at least some Iraqis will try to carry out retribution against their well-known Sunni oppressors.

Given that Saddam has no obvious successor, it is also possible that violent conflicts will break out and lead to population movements among Iraq's polarised majority Shi'a, Kurdish and Sunni communities, its minority Turkomen, Chaldean and Assyrian Christians, or its fragmented exile opposition groups.

Should the effects of any conflict spread - possibly as a result of the disintegration or fragmentation of the state, the use by Iraq of weapons of mass destruction, or anti-western unrest in neighbouring countries in response to a US attack - refugee movements and internal displacements may be even larger.

Closed borders

The spectre of renewed conflict and refugee flows is already worrying Iraqi's neighbours. Experience suggests that the initial response of the international community will be to insist that refugees remain in the region to ease their early repatriation after the Iraqi regime falls. Because of limited capacity to absorb and play host to large numbers of refugees, it is unlikely that these countries will be able to provide adequate protection and assistance for a prolonged period without extensive international assistance.

Iraq's neighbours are likely to try to close their borders and tighten policies against new refugees. Iran recently announced that it would bar them from entering and that refugee camps would instead be set up inside the Iraqi border - parts of which remain heavily mined from past conflicts. Assistance would be channelled across the border. Turkey plans to establish several camps for displaced people inside northern Iraq. Potential host countries further west are likely to try and turn back refugees. Jordan also says that it will close its borders.

Governments in the region will be under international pressure to admit Iraqis. New inflows will join large numbers of long-staying refugees, many stranded for over a decade. While some will be anxious to return home after a change of regime, others may not be eager to do so because of instability and fears of recrimination.

In the aftermath of military action, the US and the international community will have a responsibility to help the Iraqi people with security, protection, and material and financial assistance. However, it remains doubtful whether this commitment will last long enough. With so many other issues at stake, such as access to Iraq's oil, repayment of outstanding debts and reparations, and pre-war promises to neighbouring countries for access to bases and cooperation with the US military, it seems likely that the fate of Iraqi refugees will be pushed far down the list of priorities.

United Nations Security Council Resolution 1441 is a warning for Iraq to disarm. It should also be a warning for international aid agencies and military forces to take immediate steps to develop their capacity to respond to a possible major refugee crisis and its aftermath. Refugees have been one of the central strategic and political challenges of nearly all recent western military interventions. They have disrupted military plans as well as local and regional political structures in surprising and unexpected ways. Policy planners ignore the potential humanitarian consequences of a conflict in Iraq at their peril.

Gil Loescher is Senior Fellow for Forced Displacement and International Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London, and author of 'The UNHCR and World Politics: A Perilous Path' (Oxford University Press, 2001).