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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Amy J who wrote (8782)	2/9/2003 12:24:49 PM
From: John Chen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Amy,re:"assumption..interest". That's a wrong assumption. Reasons: > we cannot afford it: If you borrow money, you want to pay the least in interest. The FED needs to borrow money (with the advantage of able to print some). > the FED is favoring a particular group of people. (they always do, remember the LongTermCapital crap..., they always bail out someone). Low interest rate seems to help a group of people. > No inflation, no wage pressure, no nothing. > Interest-rate relationship with RE is about to run it's course. Good paying jobs is the next issue. > high-end market, those are not for the average wage earner. But they do have a BAD influence on other people's living. This is a have vs haven't issue and has nothing to do with interest-rate. These house has no standard prices, it's a matter of the affluent's extra cash. > most things in life has cycle ... be patient ... there are choices ... don't hang out with the wrong crowd ... don't be confused by the smoke-and-screen of the rich and famous ... don't get the drug habit ... life is easier that way. > RICH people have RICH problem.

To: Amy J who wrote (8782)	2/9/2003 2:59:08 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

(1) in the 70's inflation, did real estate prices drop initially, when interest rates initially rose? (2) then when inflation kicked into full gear, did RE prices inflect & run up as inflation went into full gear? No and no. Interest rates tend to rise concurrently with inflation. I don't have my real estate price indexes with me right now, but historical Freddie Mac mortgage rates can be found at: freddiemac.com Based on annual averages the interest rate cycle was roughly: 1972 was 7.38% 1981 was 16.63% 2002 was 6.54% Real estate peaked in 1989 and bottomed out in 1996. There was more to the 1967 to 1989 rise than just a straight line, but I'd rather not do it from memory.

To: Amy J who wrote (8782)	2/9/2003 11:54:47 PM
From: jaypope	Respond to of 306849

Commercial space is going for as low as $0.90/ft here in Fremont... $2.00/ft still sounds high for just about anywhere in the Bay Area, especially considering the 20%+ vacancy rate right now. Where is your office located?

To: Amy J who wrote (8782)	2/10/2003 12:00:38 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 306849

amy, what area of the country is your corp space? tia...

To: Amy J who wrote (8782)	2/13/2003 8:37:39 PM
From: David Jones	Respond to of 306849

...Questions are: what do you think is the likelihood of inflation? For how long do you think real estate prices could go down initially, in the face of initial rising interest rates? At what point would RE prices inflect back up, in an inflation economy? What indicators/signs do you watch for?.... Gad! I can tell you this. I lost a deposit on a new home from rising interest rates in 77 because I no longer qualified. The builders had no problem selling that home to someone better moneyed. And I was damn glad I already owned a home with the rising inflation. As I recall the prices of mid to low priced homes floated right along with inflation. As for indicators I watch sells of existing homes and foreclosures. Demographics such as population numbers are really helpful but they lag too much to really do any thing with imo.