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Strategies & Market Trends : Win Lose or Draw : Be A Steve, Make A Call -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (1360)	2/9/2003 9:50:38 AM
From: farkarooski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11447

dude, I am scared, can you comfort me ??? Why The Market Isn't Rising from John Mauldin First, from Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letter daily comments (www.dowtheoryletters.com with permission): "Let's follow the money, which mean following the stock market. This is what I'm seeing. My Big Money Breadth Index broke to a new bear market low yesterday -- well below its October low. This indicates important big money saying "bye" to this market. "My Most Active Stock Index broke to a new bear market low yesterday, for the first time plunging below its October low. Again, institutional money moving out of the market. "Lowry's Buying Power Index fell to a five year low yesterday, well below its October low. This indicates a declining interest in accumulating stocks. Lowry's Selling Pressure Index rose above its "sell signal" level (up over 25 points from its recent low). This indicates a desire to unload existing positions. "Daily new lows on the NYSE are starting to climb above daily new highs. This means more issues are breaking support. "We are seeing an increasing number of "distribution" days on the exchanges. These are days when the market declines on increasing volume compared with the preceding day. "Distribution" days are days when institutions reveal their desire to unload stock positions. "We saw our first "distribution" day of the new year on January 6. On January 15 and again on the 16th the market declined on rising volume. Then yesterday we saw another day of distribution as the market declined on expanding volume. "All the above indicate steady deterioration in the technical understructure of the stock market. All the above indicate declining demand for stocks and an increasing desire to move out of existing positions. "I want to say a few words about the Utilities. These companies are sensitive to the demand for energy, interest rates, and government regulations. Utilities often lead the rest of the market. Yesterday 14 of the 15 D-J Utility stocks were down. At its recent low of 162 recorded at the October lows, the D-J Utility Average was at its lowest level since 1988, at which time the Dow was selling below 3000. Something to think about." Then Art Cashin of CNBC fame writes in his private letter: "Caught Between Iraq And A Soft Patch - With everybody but the Cartoon Network doing all Iraq, all the time, investors are buying into not buying till the shooting starts. Traders, however, aren't so sure that Iraq is the market's only obstacle. But it is the focus of media attention. "The Market Climate - No Global Warming - The market seems to churn on between 1.2 billion and 1.6 billion shares each day. Traders feel that, with between 35% and 45% coming from "program trading" and - maybe - 10% coming from lottery tickets ("it's under $2, ya gotta buy it") - the market is somewhat stagnant. That, they believe, is because sellers have been hibernating. "Wait, you say. Hasn't the market gone down 100 or 200 points in several days? Yes, it has. But that's not a crush of panicky selling. Rather, as we have noted, those days are buyer's boycotts. "Let's start with a little Wall Street folklore. 'There is not always a reason to buy but there is always a reason to sell'. Buyers can postpone due to mood, info, price or a hundred different things. Sellers are different even if the economy's booming and peace is on the land - estates must be settled; tuitions and medical bills paid, etc. "So.....traders believe that most 'trading' sellers are on the sidelines. Not - 'sold out' - but rather reluctant to sell at 'such low prices' as media types reassure that "we've bottomed". That leaves the direction of the market - for the time being - in the hands of the buyers and the above noted 'sellers for cause.' "The logjam could break either way, of course. The economy could perk up and buyers might pay up. Or.....heaven forefend....we could make new lows bringing the disillusioned out of hibernation. Any wonder the battle [by the bulls] to hold Nasdaq 1300?"

To: LTK007 who wrote (1360)	2/9/2003 10:30:38 AM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 11447

I will have to make the Ike Lossif show a regular visit, like the style of the whole show. Bottomline, we , as Swenlin points out, do not yet, in his opinion, have a benchmark low measure for rydex but we are deep into 1998 at this time. I am ready to buy into a "burst rally off extremes" based on VIX and Trin and P/C and so on readings. But i will be looking for new lows first and will have to put in stop loss and move them up daily if we get in a burst rally. the 10 p/e is still, probably , but not necessarily, 2 to 3 years away, at least. What can be said firmly is all rallies will be events to buy and then sell as this will be overtime be the most vicious bear market in U.S. history imo. Regards Gold as i have said before for reasons beyond my control i missed the correct entry in Gold, but as Swenlin says, while Gold is in a strong bull trend there likely will be a retracement(within its Bull Channel)--if that happens, i will buy into it. Overall i think going short or long without stop loss settings, is madness at this time and for quite some time well into the future.(except for the areas like precious metals and whatever else people can pin down and isolate). Max p.s. those premiums on CSCO INTC DELL and MSFT are scary, as the too many "in name only" fund managers, for lack of research and general laziness ,just keep stuffing the Big 4 techs because they actually know their names.Max P.S. you know like Lucent once was.:)