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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (18041)	2/9/2003 11:12:27 AM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 206121

Que, I believe I may have answered my own question in the earlier post. Spent the last few minutes looking at early '01 STEO's and found that the EIA was miserably bad at their NG price forecasting. They were still sticking with a call for average '01 gas prices to be >$5 even in their May '01 STEO. Also, even their low range for the '01 bottom in gas prices (which supposedly had a "95% confidence interval") turned out to be too high by > a buck! So the markets are (understandably I suppose) severely discounting the EIA forecasts this year. It looks like it will take several straight months of gas prices > $5.30 or so to get the markets really interested in this story. In the '00 -- '01 boom, average monthly gas prices exceeded this threshold for only 3 months (Dec -- Feb). Jan '03 averaged $5.37, Feb is obviously gonna be > $5.30, and so far it looks like March is a lock to do so also. Methinks we're getting close to getting the attention of the masses but it will probably not occur until March sometime, when the April contract becomes the front month.