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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (18043)	2/9/2003 11:31:24 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206121

One last point, how can we sustain 5-6 NG? Is it that you believe shoulder season will be weak? Lets consider that I am wrong, and NG storage does not replenish itself, where do you see the product going? Either way you have to make the argument as Que correctly states that the play of current shortage is on FUTURE equity pricing. Future that I believe won't come until early next fall. So this gives me plenty of time to buy equities to take advantage of a possible surge next fall. Currently I don't see any rush to go long these issues. For the record OSX could consolidate as I stated before in the 65-85 area for a while before a sustainable rally kicks in. This will not happen until Late summer or early fall. The problem with that scenerio of tight supplies holding through spring and summer, is what happens if crude crashes w. the other energy complex? Will the NG plays be held for the squeeze into the fall?? Its a question that I cannot answer yet. So, my plan simply is to allow the market to dicate which trade to make, and currently its a sell on the energy sector. Good luck! you make excellent points as does QUE on why OSX may be the place tobe but clearly its not now, it later in the year.

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (18043)	2/9/2003 11:35:58 AM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 206121

The only people who really care what the futures contract high for March or April will be are commodity traders. The investors in energy stocks are watching the 12 month futures strip. I suspect many are concerned that NG prices for the fill months will tank. This is the one to watch. I bet it averages over $5 April, May, June. futuresource.com

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (18043)	2/9/2003 12:00:15 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 206121

Greenie, Even though I disagree with your conclusions your comments are very helpful because they provide great insight into what the market overall is probably thinking at this point. <Worse case scnerio is IRAQ fields sustain limited damage, and then the flood of crude will start. Market currently at 35-37BBL is definitly discounting IRAQ coming of line at some point. From what I read Russia has far too many crude ships frozen in port and cannot get to market. If we get Russia back on line to full loads and Caracas as OPEC opens the spicket, if you add a softening world economy, you could have a serious CRASH in the energy markets products in the next 3 months.> I've always thought that in a worst case scenario as you describe above oil would still be > $20/bbl. for a sustained period of time, due to the lack of both upstream and pipeline infrastructure in Iraq. Also, I believe that OPEC is resolved to keep prices in or not far from its desired price band -- their resolve is demonstrated by some members already thinking out loud that they may want to start reducing quotas when they meet next month. What do you see as the average price of oil for '03 & '04 if the worst case scenario occurs? WRT natgas prices, I'm not yet sold on $5 gas, but I'm definitely sold on $4 gas. I believe the economics of this business are very good with $4 gas, and if in fact this turns out to be the new equilibrium price then the industry will have several very good years.