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To: Jeffrey S. Lillie who wrote (1367)2/9/2003 5:14:58 PM
From: lurqer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11447
 
trade that has a hold time of years

There may be one later this year that will be good for a year or so. Recall, I discussed going from the mania peak (Delusion) to the P/E compression low (Despair) in '07/'08. I'm assuming that like '66 to '74, and for similar demographic reasons, we'll get a bounce before continuing on down. If "things" get bad enough (perhaps because something goes awry in Iraq), we'll reach that intermediate bottom. Time will reveal all.

I should add if the scenario outline above does occur, expect to hear much ballyhoo about the death of the secular bear. Nonsense. It will merely be preparing for its next "big meal".

Good Luck this coming week.

lurqer