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Politics : DON'T START THE WAR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: BubbaFred who wrote (6805)2/9/2003 12:11:39 PM
From: BubbaFred  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25898
 
W Clark's paper (Part 2)
ratical.org

This unique geo-political agreement with Saudi Arabia in 1973 has worked to our favor for the past 30 years, as this arrangement has raised the entire asset value of all dollar denominated assets/properties, and allowed the Federal Reserve to create a truly massive debt and credit expansion (or `credit bubble' in the view of some economists). These structural imbalances in the U.S. economy are sustainable as long as:

1. nations continue to demand and purchase oil for their energy/survival needs, and

2. the fiat reserve currency for global oil transactions remain the U.S. dollar (and dollar only).

These underlying factors, along with the `safe harbor' reputation of U.S. investments afforded by the dollar's reserve currency status propelled the U.S. to economic and military hegemony in the post-World War II period. However, the introduction of the euro is a significant new factor, and appears to be the primary threat to U.S. economic hegemony. Moreover, in December 2002 ten additional countries were approved for full membership into the E.U. In 2004 this will result in an aggregate GDP of $9.6 trillion and 450 million people, directly competing with the U.S. economy ($10.5 trillion GDP, 280 million people).

Especially interesting is a speech given by Mr Javad Yarjani, the Head of OPEC's Petroleum Market Analysis Department, in a visit to Spain in April 2002. His speech dealt entirely with the subject of OPEC oil transaction currency standard with respect to both the dollar and the euro. The following excerpts from this OPEC executive provide insights into the conditions that would create momentum for an OPEC currency switch to the euro. Indeed, his candid analysis warrants careful consideration given that two of the requisite variables he outlines for the switch have taken place since this speech in Spring 2002. These vital stories are discussed in the European media, but have been censored by our own mass media.

". . . The question that comes to mind is whether the euro will establish itself in world financial markets, thus challenging the supremacy of the US dollar, and consequently trigger a change in the dollar's dominance in oil markets. As we all know, the mighty dollar has reigned supreme since 1945, and in the last few years has even gained more ground with the economic dominance of the United States, a situation that may not change in the near future. By the late 90s, more than four-fifths of all foreign exchange transactions, and half of all world exports, were denominated in dollars. In addition, the US currency accounts for about two thirds of all official exchange reserves. The world's dependency on US dollars to pay for trade has seen countries bound to dollar reserves, which are disproportionably higher than America's share in global output. The share of the dollar in the denomination of world trade is also much higher than the share of the US in world trade.

"Having said that, it is worthwhile to note that in the long run the euro is not at such a disadvantage versus the dollar when one compares the relative sizes of the economies involved, especially given the EU enlargement plans. Moreover, the Euro-zone has a bigger share of global trade than the US and while the US has a huge current account deficit, the euro area has a more, or balanced, external accounts position. One of the more compelling arguments for keeping oil pricing and payments in dollars has been that the US remains a large importer of oil, despite being a substantial crude producer itself. However, looking at the statistics of crude oil exports, one notes that the Euro-zone is an even larger importer of oil and petroleum products than the US. . . .

". . . From the EU's point of view, it is clear that Europe would prefer to see payments for oil shift from the dollar to the euro, which effectively removed the currency risk. It would also increase demand for the euro and thus help raise its value. Moreover, since oil is such an important commodity in global trade, in term of value, if pricing were to shift to the euro, it could provide a boost to the global acceptability of the single currency. There is also very strong trade links between OPEC Member Countries (MCs) and the Euro-zone, with more than 45 percent of total merchandise imports of OPEC MCs coming from the countries of the Euro-zone, while OPEC MCs are main suppliers of oil and crude oil products to Europe. . . .

"Of major importance to the ultimate success of the euro, in terms of the oil pricing, will be if Europe's two major oil producers -- the United Kingdom and Norway join the single currency. Naturally, the future integration of these two countries into the Euro-zone and Europe will be important considering they are the region's two major oil producers in the North Sea, which is home to the international crude oil benchmark, Brent. This might create a momentum to shift the oil pricing system to euros. . . .

"In the short-term, OPEC MCs, with possibly a few exceptions, are expected to continue to accept payment in dollars. Nevertheless, I believe that OPEC will not discount entirely the possibility of adopting euro pricing and payments in the future. The Organization, like many other financial houses at present, is also assessing how the euro will settle into its life as a new currency. The critical question for market players is the overall value and stability of the euro, and whether other countries within the Union will adopt the single currency.

". . . Should the euro challenge the dollar in strength, which essentially could include it in the denomination of the oil bill, it could be that a system may emerge which benefits more countries in the long-term. Perhaps with increased European integration and a strong European economy, this may become a reality. Time may be on your side. I wish the euro every success." [14]

Based on this important speech, momentum for OPEC to consider switching to the euro will grow once the E.U. expands in May 2004 to 450 million people with the inclusion of 10 additional member states. The aggregate GDP will increase from $7 trillion to $9.6 trillion. This enlarged European Union (EU) will be an oil consuming purchasing population 33% larger than the U.S., and over half of OPEC crude oil will be sold to the EU as of mid-2004. This does not include other potential E.U./euro entrants such as the U.K., Norway, Denmark and Sweden. It should be noted that since late 2002, the euro has been trading at parity or above the dollar, and analysts predict the dollar will continue its downward trending in 2003 relative to the euro.

It appears the final two pivotal items that would create the OPEC transition to euros will be based on (1) if and when Norway's Brent crude is re-dominated in euros and (2) when the U.K. adopts the euro. Regarding the later, Tony Blair is lobbying heavily for the U.K. to adopt the euro, and their adoption would seem imminent within this decade. If and when the U.K. adopts the euro currency I suspect a concerted effort will be quickly mounted to establish the euro as an international reserve currency. Again, I offer the following information from my astute acquaintance who analyzes these monetary matters very carefully:

"The pivotal vote will probably be Sweden, where approval this next autumn of adopting the euro also would give momentum to the Danish government's strong desire to follow suit. Polls in Denmark now indicate that the euro would pass with a comfortable margin and Norwegian polls show a growing majority in favor of EU membership. Indeed, with Norway having already integrated most EU economic directives through the EEA partnership and with their strongly appreciated currency, their accession to the euro would not only be effortless, but of great economic benefit.

"As go the Swedes, so probably will go the Danes & Norwegians. It's the British who are the real obstacle to building momentum for the euro as international transaction & reserve currency. So long as the United Kingdom remains apart from the euro, reducing exchange rate costs between the euro and the British pound remains their obvious priority. British adoption (a near-given in the long run) would mount significant pressure toward repegging the Brent crude benchmark -- which is traded on the International Petroleum Exchange in London -- and the Norwegians would certainly have no objection whatsoever that I can think of, whether or not they join the European Union.

"Finally, the maneuvers toward reducing the global dominance of the dollar are already well underway and have only reason to accelerate so far as I can see. An OPEC pricing shift would seem rather unlikely prior 2004 -- barring political motivations (ie. from anxious OPEC members) or a disorderly collapse of the dollar (ie. Japanese bank collapse due to high oil prices following a prolonged Iraq conflict) but appears quite viable to take place before the end of the decade."

In other words, around 2005, from a purely economic and monetary perspective, it will be logical for OPEC to switch to the euro for oil pricing. Of course that will devalue the dollar, and hurt the US economy unless it begins making some structural changes -- or use its massive military power to force events upon OPEC . . . Facing these potentialities, I hypothesize that President Bush intends to topple Saddam in 2003 in a pre-emptive attempt to initiate massive Iraqi oil production in far excess of OPEC quotas, to reduce global oil prices, and thereby dismantle OPEC's price controls. The end-goal of the neo-conservatives is incredibly bold yet simple in purpose, to use the `war on terror' as the premise to finally dissolve OPEC's decision-making process, thus ultimately preventing the cartel's inevitable switch to pricing oil in euros.

How would the Bush administration break-up the OPEC cartel's price controls in a post-Saddam Iraq? First, the newly installed regime (apparently a U.S. General) will convert Iraq back to the dollar standard. Next, with the U.S. military protecting the oil fields, the new ruling junta will undertake the necessary steps to rapidly increase production of Iraq oil -- well beyond OPEC's 2 million barrel per day quota.

Dr. Nayyer Ali offers a succinct analysis of how Iraq's underutilized oil reserves will not be a `profit-maker' for the U.S. government, but it will serve as the crucial economic instrument to leverage and dissolve OPEC's price controls, thus fulfilling the long sought-after goal of the neo-conservatives to disband OPEC:

". . . Despite this vast pool of oil, Iraq has never produced at a level proportionate to the reserve base. Since the Gulf War, Iraq¹s production has been limited by sanctions and allowed sales under the oil for food program (by which Iraq has sold 60 billion dollars worth of oil over the last 5 years) and what else can be smuggled out. This amounts to less than 1 billion barrels per year. If Iraq were reintegrated into the world economy, it could allow massive investment in its oil sector and boost output to 2.5 billion barrels per year, or about 7 million barrels a day.

"Total world oil production is about 75 million barrels, and OPEC combined produces about 25 million barrels.

"What would be the consequences of this? There are two obvious things.

"First would be the collapse of OPEC, whose strategy of limiting production to maximize price will have finally reached its limit. An Iraq that can produce that much oil will want to do so, and will not allow OPEC to limit it to 2 million barrels per day. If Iraq busts its quota, then who in OPEC will give up 5 million barrels of production? No one could afford to, and OPEC would die. This would lead to the second major consequence, which is a collapse in the price of oil to the 10-dollar range per barrel. The world currently uses 25 billion barrels per year, so a 15-dollar drop will save oil-consuming nations 375 billion dollars in crude oil costs every year.

". . . The Iraq war is not a moneymaker. But it could be an OPEC breaker. That however is a long-term outcome that will require Iraq to be successfully reconstituted into a functioning state in which massive oil sector investment can take place." [15]

The American people are largely oblivious to the economic risks regarding President Bush's upcoming war. Not only is Japan's weakened economy at grave risk from a spike in oil prices, but additional risks relate to Iran and Venezuela as well, either of whom could move to the euros, thus providing further momentum for OPEC to act on their `internal discussions' and switch to the euro as their new oil currency. The Bush administration believes that by toppling Saddam they will remove the juggernaut, thus allowing the US to control Iraqi's huge oil reserves, and finally break-up and dissolve the 10 remaining countries in OPEC.

This last issue is undoubtedly a significant gamble even in the best-case scenario of a quick and relatively painless war that topples Saddam and leaves Iraq's oil fields intact. Undoubtedly, the OPEC cartel could feel threatened by the goal of the neo-conservatives to break-up OPEC's price controls ($22-$28 per barrel). Perhaps the Bush administration's ambitious goal of flooding the oil market with Iraqi crude may work, but I have doubts. Will OPEC simply tolerate quota-busting Iraqi oil production, thus delivering to them a lesson in self-inflicted hara-kiri (suicide)? Contrarily, OPEC could meet in Vienna and in an act of self-preservation re-denominate the oil currency to the euro. Such a decision would mark the end of U.S. dollar hegemony, and thus the end of our precarious economic superpower status. Again, I offer the astute analysis of my expert friend regarding the colossal gamble this administration is about to undertake:

"One of the dirty little secrets of today's international order is that the rest of the globe could topple the United States from its hegemonic status whenever they so choose with a concerted abandonment of the dollar standard. This is America's preeminent, inescapable Achilles Heel for now and the foreseeable future.

"That such a course hasn't been pursued to date bears more relation to the fact that other Westernized, highly developed nations haven't any interest to undergo the great disruptions which would follow -- but it could assuredly take place in the event that the consensus view coalesces of the United States as any sort of `rogue' nation. In other words, if the dangers of American global hegemony are ever perceived as a greater liability than the dangers of toppling the international order (or, alternately, if an `every man for himself' crisis as discussed above spirals out of control and forces their hand). The Bush administration and the neo-conservative movement has set out on a multiple-front course to ensure that this cannot take place, in brief by a graduated assertion of military hegemony atop the existent economic hegemony.

Regrettably, under this administration we have returned to massive deficit spending, and the lack of strong SEC enforcement has further eroded investor confidence. Indeed, the flawed economic and tax policies and of the Bush administration may be exacerbating the weakness of the dollar, if not outright accelerating some countries to diversify their central bank reserve funds with euros as an alternative to the dollar. From a foreign policy perspective, the terminations of numerous international treaties and disdain for international cooperation via the U.N. and NATO have angered even our closest allies.



Synopsis:

It would appear that any attempt by OPEC member states in the Middle East or Latin America to transition to the euro as their oil transaction currency standard shall be met with either overt U.S. military actions or covert U.S. intelligence agency interventions. Under the guise of the perpetual `war on terror' the Bush administration is manipulating the American people about the unspoken but very real macroeconomic reasons for this upcoming war with Iraq. This war in Iraq will not be based on any threat from Saddam's old WMD program, or from terrorism. This war will be over the global currency of oil.

Sadly, the U.S. has become largely ignorant and complacent. Too many of us are willing to be ruled by fear and lies, rather than by persuasion and truth. Will we allow our government to initiate the dangerous `pre-emptive doctrine' by waging an unpopular war in Iraq, while we refuse to acknowledge that Saddam does not pose an imminent threat to the United States? Furthermore, we seem unable to address the structural weakness of our economy due to massive debt manipulation, unaffordable 2001 tax cuts, record levels of trade deficits, corporate accounting abuses, unsustainable credit expansion, near zero personal savings, record personal indebtedness, and our dependence and over consumption of Middle Eastern oil.

Regardless of whatever Dr. Blix finds or doesn't find in Iraq regarding WMD, it appears that President Bush is determined to pursue his `pre-emptive' imperialist war to secure a large portion of the earth's remaining hydrocarbons, and then use Iraq's underutilized oil to destroy the OPEC cartel. Will this gamble work? That remains to be seen. However, it is quite plausible that our nation may suffer not only from increased Al-Qaeda sponsored terrorism, but economic retribution from the international community or OPEC members as well. Will we sit idle and watch CNN, as our government becomes an international pariah by discarding international law as it wages a unilateral war in Iraq? How can we effectively thwart the threat of international Al Qaeda terrorism if we alienate so many of our allies?

We must ask ourselves this fundamental question: Is it morally defensible to deploy our brave but naïve young soldiers around the globe to enforce U.S. dollar hegemony for global oil transactions via the barrels of their guns? Will we allow imperialist conquest of the Middle East to feed our excessive oil consumption, while ignoring the duplicitous overthrowing of a democratically elected government in Latin America? Is it acceptable for a U.S. President to threaten military force upon OPEC nation state(s) because of their sovereign choice of currency regarding their oil exports? Paradoxically, these belligerent policies may bring about the dire outcome this administration hopes to prevent -- an OPEC currency switch to euros. Thus, remaining silent is not only misguided, but false patriotism. We must not stand silent and watch our country become a `rogue' superpower, relying on brute force, thereby forcing the developed nations or OPEC to abandon the dollar standard -- and with the mere stroke of a pen -- slay the U.S. Empire.

This need not be our fate. When will we demand that our government begin the long and difficult journey towards energy conservation, the development of renewable energy sources, and sustained balanced budgets to allow real deficit reduction? When will we repeal the unaffordable 2001 tax cuts to create a balanced budget, enforce corporate accounting laws, and substantially reinvest in our manufacturing and export sectors to gradually but earnestly move our economy from a trade account deficit position back into a trade account surplus position? Undoubtedly, we must make these and many more structural changes to our economy if we are to restore and maintain our international "safe harbor investment status.

Equally important, we must bear in mind the wisdom of founding fathers like Thomas Jefferson's who insisted that a free press is vital, as it is our best, and often the only mechanism to protect democracy. The American people are not aware of the issues discussed in this essay because the U.S. mass media has been reduced to a handful of consumption/entertainment and profit-oriented conglomerates that filter the flow of information within the U.S. Sadly, part of today's dilemma lays within these U.S. media conglomerates that have failed in their responsibilities to inform the People. Our Congress must enact reforms, as this is a legitimate threat to our democracy. The Internet should not be our only source of real, unfiltered news.

Furthermore, it would seem imperative that our government begins discussions with the E.U. to reform the global monetary system. We must adopt our economy to accommodate the inevitable competition from the euro as an alternative international reserve currency. I concur with those enlightened economists who recommend that we create a dollar-euro exchange band with reserve status parity, and a dual-OPEC oil transaction standard. However, the Bush administration's entrenched political ideology appears quite incompatible with these necessary economic reforms. Ultimately We must demand a new administration. We need responsible leaders who are willing to return to balanced budgets, conservative fiscal policies, and to our traditions of engaging in multilateral foreign policies while seeking broad international cooperation.

It has been said that all wars are fought over resources or ideology/religion. It appears that the Bush administration may soon add `oil currency war' as a third paradigm. I fear that the world community will not tolerate a U.S. Empire that uses its military power to conquer sovereign nations who decide to sell their oil products in euros instead of dollars. Likewise, if President Bush pursues an essentially unilateral war against Iraq, I doubt the historians will be kind to him or his administration. Their agenda is clear to the world community, but when will U.S. patriots become cognizant of their modus operandi?

"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.

"The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State."

-- Joseph Goebbels, German Minister of Propaganda, 1933-1945



Background Information on Hydrocarbons

To understand hydrocarbons and how we got to this desperate place in Iraq, I have listed four articles in the Reference Section from Michael Ruppert's controversial website: From the Wilderness. Although some of Ruppert's articles are overwrought from time to time, their research detailing the issues of hydrocarbons, and the interplay between energy and the Bush junta's perpetual `war on terror' is quite informative.

Other than the core driver of the dollar versus euro currency threat, the other issue related to the upcoming war with Iraq appears related to the Caspian Sea region. Since the mid-late 1990s the Caspian Sea region of Central Asia was thought to hold approximately 200 billion barrels of untapped oil (the later would be comparable to Saudi Arabia's reserve base)." [16] Based on an early feasibility study by Enron, the easiest and cheapest way to bring this oil to market would be a pipeline from Kazakhstan, through Afghanistan to the Pakistan border at Malta. In 1998 then CEO of Halliburton, Dick Cheney, expressed much interest in building that pipeline.

In fact, these oil reserves were a central component of Cheney's energy plan released in May 2001. According to his report, the U.S. will import 90% of its oil by 2020, and thus tapping into the reserves in the Caspian Sea region was viewed as a strategic goal that would help meet our growing energy demand, and also reduce our dependence on oil from the Middle East." [17]

According to the French book, The Forbidden Truth, [18] the Bush administration ignored the U.N. sanctions that had been imposed upon the Taliban and entered into negotiations with the supposedly `rogue regime' from February 2, 2001 to August 6, 2001. According to this book, the Taliban were apparently not very cooperative based on the statements of Pakistan's former ambassador, Mr. Naik. He reports that the U.S. threatened a `military option' in the summer of 2001 if the Taliban did not acquiesce to our demands. Fortuitous for the Bush administration and Cheney's energy plan, Bin Laden delivered to us 9/11. The pre-positioned U.S. military, along with the CIA providing cash to the Northern Alliance leaders, led the invasion of Afghanistan and the Taliban were routed. The pro-western Karzai government was ushered in. The pipeline project was now back on track in early 2002, well, sort of . . .

After three exploratory wells were built and analyzed, it was reported that the Caspian region holds only approximately 10 to 20 billion barrels of oil (although it does have a lot of natural gas)." [16] The oil is also of poor quality, with high sulfur content. Subsequently, several major companies have now dropped their plans for the pipeline citing the massive project was no longer profitable. Unfortunately, this recent realization about the Caspian Sea region has serious implications for the U.S., India, China, Asia and Europe, as the amount of available hydrocarbons for industrialized and developing nations has been decreased downward by 20%. (Global estimates reduced from 1.2 trillion to approximately 1 trillion) [18,19]. The Bush administration quickly turned its attention to a known quantity, Iraq, with its proven reserves totaling 11% of the world's oil reserves. Our greatest nemesis, Bin Laden, was quickly replaced with our new public enemy #1, Saddam Hussein.

For those who would like to review the impact of depleting hydrocarbon reserves from the geo-political perspective, and the potential ramifications to how these developments may erode our civil liberties and democratic processes, retired U.S. Special Forces officer Stan Goff offers a sobering analysis in his essay: `The Infinite War and Its Roots'. [20] Likewise, for those who wish to review some of the unspeakable evidence surrounding the September 11th tragedy, the controversial essay `The Enemy Within' by the Gore Vidal offers a thorough introduction. Although this essay was published in Italy and The [UK] Observer, you will not find it printed in the U.S. media. Vidal's latest book, Dreaming War features this as the opening essay. [21] Finally, The War on Freedom: How and Why America was Attacked, September 11, 2001 by British political scientist Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed presents fundamentally disconcerting questions about the 9/11 tragedy and is highly illuminating. [22]



References:

London, Heidi Kingstone, "Middle East: Trouble in the House of Saud," The Jerusalem Report (January 13, 2003)
jrep.com

Recknagel, Charles, "Iraq: Baghdad Moves to Euro," Radio Free Europe (November 1, 2000)
rferl.org

"Economics Drive Iran Euro Oil Plan, Politics Also Key," IranExpert (August 23, 2002)
iranexpert.com

"Forex Fund Shifting to Euro," Iran Financial News, (August 25, 2002)
payvand.com

Gutman, Roy & Barry, John, "Beyond Baghdad: Expanding Target List: Washington looks at overhauling the Islamic and Arab world," Newsweek (August 11, 2002)
unansweredquestions.net

Costello, Tom, "Japan's Economy at Risk of Collapse," MSNBC News (December 11, 2002)
msnbc.com

Gluck, Caroline, "North Korea embraces the euro," BBC News (December 1, 2002)
news.bbc.co.uk

"What the World Thinks in 2002 -- How Global Publics View: Their Lives, Their Countries, The World, America," The Pew Research Center For The People & The Press (December 4, 2002)
people-press.org

"Euro continues to extend its global influence" (January 7, 2002)
europartnership.com

Henderson, Hazel, "Beyond Bush's Unilateralism: Another Bi-Polar World or A New Era of Win-Win?" InterPress Service (June 2002)
hazelhenderson.com

Birms, Larry & Volberding, Alex, "U.S. is the Primary Loser in Failed Venezuelan Coup," Newsday (April 21, 2002)
coha.org

"USA intelligence agencies revealed in plot to oust Venezuela's President," (Dec 12, 2002)
vheadline.com (link now dead) -- see ratical.org

Liu, Henry C K, "US dollar hegemony has got to go," Asia Times (April 11, 2002)
atimes.com

"The Choice of Currency for the Denomination of the Oil Bill," Speech given by Javad Yarjani, Head of OPEC's Petroleum Market Analysis Dept, on The International Role of the Euro (Invited by the Spanish Minister of Economic Affairs during Spain's Presidency of the EU) (April 14, 2002, Oviedo, Spain)
opec.org

Nayyer, Dr. Ali, "Iraq and Oil," PakistanLink (December 13, 2002)
pakistanlink.com

Pfeiffer, Dale Allen, "Much Ado about Nothing -- Whither the Caspian Riches? Over the Last 24 Months Hoped For Caspian Oil Bonanza Has Vanished With Each New Well Drilled -- Global Implications Are Frightening," From The Wilderness (December 5, 2002)
fromthewilderness.com

Ruppert, Michael, "The Unseen Conflict -- War Plans, Backroom Deals, Leverage and Strategy -- Securing What's Left of the Planet's Oil Is and Has Always Been the Bottom Line," From The Wilderness (October 18, 2002)
fromthewilderness.com

Jean Charles-Briscard & Guillaume Dasquie, The Forbidden Truth: U.S.-Taliban Secret Oil Diplomacy, Saudi Arabia and the Failed Search for bin Laden, Nation Books, 2002.
Interview: Donahue With Jean-Charles Brisard: truthout.org
Paris Reporters Say Bush Threatened War Last Summer: villagevoice.com
Reviews of the book: ratical.org

Ruppert, Michael, FTW Interview: "Colin Campbell on Oil -- Perhaps the World's Foremost Expert on Oil and the Oil Business Confirms the Ever More Apparent Reality of the Post-9-11 World," From The Wilderness (October 23, 2002)
fromthewilderness.com

Golf, Stan, "The Infinite War and its Roots," From The Wilderness (August 27, 2002)
fromthewilderness.com

Vidal, Gore, Dreaming War: Blood for Oil & the Cheney-Bush Junta, Nation Books, 2002. His essay, "The Enemy Within" was first printed in the UK Observer (Oct 27, 2002)
ratical.org

Ahmed, Nafeez, The War on Freedom: How and Why America was Attacked, September 11, 2001, Tree of Life Publications, 2002.
Complete 400-page PDF copy of book: globalfreepress.com
www.thewaronfreedom.com
Yahoo! Groups: WarOnFreedom: groups.yahoo.com
Book Review by Wanda Ballantine: ratical.org



To: BubbaFred who wrote (6805)2/9/2003 4:53:29 PM
From: BubbaFred  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25898
 
Iran's nuclear challenge: deter, not antagonize

csmonitor.com

The US has stepped up its criticism of Iran's rickety weapons program.

By Scott Peterson | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

TEHRAN, IRAN - Surrounded by hostile neighbors, Iran is a nation under constant diplomatic - and miliary - pressure. But while its quest for regional security may have led it to quietly explore weapons of mass destruction, that exploration has led it into the jaws of US criticism. Now that the US has declared war on terrorism and pronounced Iran, Iraq, and North Korea an "axis of evil," such a threat perception in Washington could yield serious consequences.
Iran is stuck in a strategic Catch 22, Western and Iranian analysts say. On one hand, it wants to portray itself as an indomitable regional power. On the other, it wants to avoid the wrath of Pentagon planners. But incur the wrath of the US it has. Washington, backed by Israel, charges that Tehran is "aggressively" pursuing weapons of mass destruction and the long-range missiles to deliver them.

Of all Washington's concerns, those of Iran's possible nuclear ambitions top the list. The CIA in early 2000 determined - controversially - that Iran was already capable of building a nuclear weapon. Just as controversial, among analysts and diplomats, a 1998 commission headed by now Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld found that Iranian missiles could cause "major destruction" to the US "within five years."

Having already declared its interest in effecting "regime change" in Iraq, a negative US assessment about Iranian intentions could pave the way for powerful US action. Israel's 1981 airstrike on Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor provides a window into one possible course of action for the US - or its close ally, Israel - if they decide that Iran presents a nuclear threat. Iran's reformist President Mohammad Khatami says Iran is interested only in civilian nuclear power, and has repeatedly called for the Mideast to be turned into a zone free of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons.

"It's better for the American administration to decide among themselves if they want to raise the flag of war, or of dialogue," Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said this week. "America believes it is the only source of right and wrong."

Indeed, independent assessments of Iran's abilities are often at odds with official US rhetoric. But the country may have reasons entirely separate from its rivalry with the US and Israel to research weapons of mass destruction.

"Iran has 15 neighbors and no friends, and these neighbors are not the most charming," says a Western diplomat in Tehran. "They know how weak they are. They need a smokescreen - and to give the impression that it's terribly dangerous behind it."

The easiest way to create such a deterrent, the diplomat says, is to "build up a rocket program that flies,... and then leave in doubt that what you put in it is not TNT."

But Iran is having trouble putting together working advanced missiles, to say nothing of any nuclear filling. Since 1998, Iran has tested three Shahab-3 missiles, which are based on North Korea's No-Dong, and have a range of 600 miles which could reach Israel. No more than a dozen remain, by one count. Two tests failed. Russian experts brought to work on the Iranian missile project in the late 1990s, according to The Washington Post, say the program was disorganized and that they were hired largely "for show."

"There are doubts about what Iran is doing," says another Western diplomat, who asked not to be identified. "But at the same time, they are years behind entering the nuclear club, and their ballistic missile program is in difficult shape. The problem is the US and Israel say Iran is building ICBMs [inter-continental ballistic missiles]. This is questionable."

Iran's nuclear program is also far weaker than many of its already weaponized neighbors, including Pakistan and Israel. Against the wishes of the US, Russia plans to complete two civilian power reactors in Iran by September 2003.

"Iran's [nuclear] program is in shambles, and the people who read all the intelligence know that," says Amin Tarzi, an Iran specialist at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterrey Institute in California. "If anybody blows up Bushehr [reactor], they are wasting their money."

Despite the risks, Iran would have good reasons for seeking a nuclear capability, Mr. Tarzi says, regardless of who rules in Tehran.

"Pakistan showed that having nuclear weapons can change the policy of great nations," Tarzi says. "Iran looks at this, and if you are dealing with the US - especially after this 'axis of evil' business - the only thing that works is nuclear weapons. You are treated differently."

Unlike its nuclear neighbors Israel, Pakistan, and India, Iran has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and allows the UN International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect its nuclear material.

"From our point of view, Iran has been playing by the rules," says Melissa Fleming, spokeswoman for the IAEA in Vienna. "However, these rules, under the safeguard system that we have now, are limited."

The limitation is that Iran (along with the US and a host of other countries) has not fully ratified the "additional protocol" that enables go-anywhere inspections. But analysts say that any clandestine nuclear ambition - if only for prestige in a dangerous neighborhood - mirrors its chaotic political system and has little political commitment or money.

Per capita, Iran spends far less militarily than the US or Israel - $137 a person, as compared with $1,382 for the US and $1,515 for Israel. Still, the worst-case scenario about Iranian military ambition has influential adherents.

"It's a misunderstanding to believe you can bring security to this region without Iran and by demonizing Iran and its identity," says Mohammad Hadi Semati, a political scientist at Tehran University. "This has produced a marriage of convenience between hard-liners in Iran, Washington and Tel Aviv."