Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (25948)	2/9/2003 1:49:26 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 57110

I think the fact that we are oversold and there are tons of puts about to go too far ITM is what is holding it up. M

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (25948)	2/9/2003 1:53:43 PM
From: Perry Ganz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

Their just are not any buyers right now. I think the only thing keeping this market from collapsing are shorts covering. Bullets will provide a little relief and playable long side rally but it will be short lived. One glimmer of hope that I saw last week was that consumer debt retracted (very volatile number) the last couple of months and savings increased. I know its nothing to hang your hat on but maybe its a start of a trend. Being a bull by nature I am always looking for a sign. But the sign of a real bottom will be when volume contracts substantially and we trade sideways for months. Capitulation will not happen at the ultimate bottom. People will forget about the market out of shear boredom. Maybe years away. JMO Perry

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (25948)	2/9/2003 3:06:16 PM
From: lifeisgood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

Since most people think we get a rally on the bullets, I am going with the opposite. I think that the only thing that is keeping this market from flat out collapsing is the threat of war and the fact that people are expecting a big rally once it starts. I agree. This has to be one of the most anticipated wars in history. As such, investors who believe in the "when bullets fly" theory, are likely already in the market. Therefore, the smart money will be shorting the "bullets" and the dumb money will soon find out that, once again, buying the media sound bites is gonna bite them in the ass. They will consequently start dumping as soon as they learn that "this time is different." I will heavily short any bounce we see but I seriously doubt we see much of one. Indeed, it's possible that the Big Dump starts when the bullets fly as all the CNBC buyers will be 100% in the market by then and there will be no money left to drive stocks up. This analysis assumes an uncomplicated war, no use by Iraq of chemical or biological weapons, no further terrorist attacks, and a dropping oil price (i.e, it assumes a Goldilocks response to war). I seriously question the validity of all of these assumptions. best... LIG