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To: chowder who wrote (18054)2/9/2003 3:04:30 PM
From: quehubo  Respond to of 206121
 
TA patterns of the XNG are revealing the exit of traders who bought NG and rode it for the Winter season. These buyers have been sliding out while NG prices are peaking.

The cold weather and very apparent imbalances between 2003 storage, production and demand should attract buyers here over the next two weeks who will ride the NG stocks through the cooling demand season and then next Winter.

But with unknown of war with Iraq and the conviction that once it is over Iraq will flood the market with oil I will be hesitant to load into margin and will not hesitate to unload margin when the signals change.



To: chowder who wrote (18054)2/9/2003 4:09:22 PM
From: russwinter  Respond to of 206121
 
delete



To: chowder who wrote (18054)2/9/2003 4:10:30 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206121
 
I'd have to question the merits of the XNG has an index. Doesn't it have merchant and utility types mixed in there? The charts of the E&Ps are in decent uptrends since Nov. (when I entered this play seriously).
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclnnay[p][iUf]&pref=G
Some like APA and REM are quite strong and have good accumulation/distribution lines.
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclnnay[p][iUf]&pref=G

stockcharts.com[l,a]daclnnay[p][iUf]&pref=G

The OSX stocks are more muted, in part because they were fairly priced in Nov, and the 4Q and 1Q fundamentals are (were) worse, so you have to be forward thinking with those. Some of these are turning though:
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclnnay[p][iUf]&pref=G

Admittedly most of us would have hoped for more given the massive commodity spike, but hey this has been better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick, at least for me. And all systems are go in my book.



To: chowder who wrote (18054)2/9/2003 5:55:21 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Respond to of 206121
 
dabum, Thanks kindly for all the "help", but I have decided that I am an incorrigible heathen and beyond being converted to even your elementary utilization of TA.

I have my own little simplistic concept of TA (e.g., it fortunately has kept me out of PQUE so far, even though I really like the company and wanna own it), but that's probably gonna be where it ends, from my point of view.

Also, to take Russ' point even further, I believe that the XNG is pretty much worthless as a measure of E&P stocks (which is my baliwick), due to the inclusion of some IPP companies in that index (EP, DYN, WMB, etc.). '03 YTD my US E&P index is down 5.3%, whereas the XNG is up 8.3%. E&P companies had a pretty good Nov/Dec, but it has not been fun to be an E&P investor so far this year.

For the US E&P Index see the portfolio for the board I created at Subject 53558 . An explanation of the index is in my original post.