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Politics : America Under Siege: The End of Innocence -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: calgal who wrote (21377)2/10/2003 12:15:26 AM
From: calgal  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27666
 
William F. Buckley, Jr.

February 10, 2003
URL:http://www.townhall.com/columnists/wfbuckley/wfb20030210.shtml

No smile on his face

!--BEGIN_TEXT-->George W. Bush is on a great roll. His speech on Thursday combined everything needed at this near-decisive moment. He gave our allies, Congress and the public exactly that -- what was needed. And he engaged in a venture in diplomatic craft that will make its way into the textbooks of the future, in all the languages spoken at the U.N. Security Council.

Here are the open questions: What is it that's now expected from the Security Council? And what is it that is needed from the Security Council?

The papers tell of discreet maneuvering by representatives of the great powers. France and Germany are most conspicuous here, France because of its serpentine maneuvers around blatant truths, Germany because it is the most powerful of the European nations. France has the veto, Germany doesn't. China does, and Russia does, but they seem to be preparing for a siesta when a fresh resolution is voted on. The parliamentary threat is that of France.

But what is it that opponents of the Bush policy will focus on? Here was the president at his shrewdest. In his speech, he recalled that Security Council Resolution 1441 was passed by a unanimous vote, that Saddam Hussein was enjoined to make a full declaration of his weapons program. "He has not done so" -- the judgment was biblical in its directness. And Saddam was enjoined to cooperate fully in disarmament. "He has not done so." What follows from this? "Now the Security Council will show whether its words have any meaning."

Mr. Bush went on to say that the United States would support a supplementary resolution. He did not specify the language of such a resolution. But he was saying, by the structure of his speech, that no new resolution is really required, that 1441 said it all; that the Iraqi regime had been called upon to do things it has not done, leaving it to the enforcers in the world to take the next step.

What the diplomats are apparently going on about is whether a resolution should now be passed specifically to the effect that the Security Council authorizes, and indeed encourages, the use of armed force to effect compliance. Such language sticks in the throat of some members. Cultural interpreters of Germany are saying something to the effect that Germany used up a century's ration of violence not so long ago, and couldn't possibly endorse violence again, even to restrain violence. There are reports from French realists that, when all is said and done, whatever their stand in the United Nations, they will come in with a few thousand troops and perhaps their aircraft carrier.

But the United States appears to be taking steps to avoid a parliamentary session the positive conclusion of which is less than certain. And Mr. Bush perfectly contrived to do this by his simple and entirely plausible contention that the resolution already passed -- unanimously -- as recently as 12 weeks ago is all that is needed. Anything more is by way of a piccolo, signaling the military parade to begin. "The game is over," Mr. Bush said.

I have a copy of a private communication. It is written by a close student of rhetoric, and the author writes: "George Bush is a phenomenon: He is the innately nonverbally apt, or deft, speaker who transcends eloquence, (nevertheless) achieving that which is greater in oratory -- a plainspoken integrity that unites the emotions and the intellect." Bush replaces, the analyst continues, "mere eloquence with genuine conviction, character, moral courage and personal goodness."

The writer makes one critical point worth passing on. "Offputting is that ghost of a smile that haunts his upper lip at inappropriate moments and lingers. It comes sometimes close to the simper that marred the performances of Bill Clinton, residing physically in the way he sets his overhanging upper lip at the ends of phrases."

No smile was intended when George Bush spoke of the consequences of Iraqi defiance, or of the sad derivative obligations of the guardian of the strategic peace.

William F. Buckley, Jr. is editor-at-large of National Review, a TownHall.com member group.

©2003 Universal Press Syndicate



To: calgal who wrote (21377)2/10/2003 1:17:13 AM
From: calgal  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27666
 
Steve Chapman
February 10, 2003
URL:http://www.townhall.com/columnists/stevechapman/sc20030210.shtml
In the drive toward war, a last exit

So it's war. Secretary of State Colin Powell's presentation at the United Nations Wednesday virtually sealed the deal. Faced with a mass of evidence that Iraq is doing all it can to prevent inspectors from finding its chemical and biological weapons, the Security Council is likely to go along with the U.S. demand for an invasion. Powell assured the world that military action will come, and in "weeks, not months."

But there is still a way that this showdown could end peacefully. President Bush has put a gun to Saddam Hussein's head, and no one doubts that in the near future, he will be happy to pull the trigger. So there is only one other choice left to the Iraqi dictator: capitulation.

No one seems to regard that as a possibility. But judging from his past, it would not be a total surprise to see Hussein choose humiliation and survival over death and glory.

To do that, though, he will need the cooperation of the Bush administration. The president has made it absolutely clear that if Iraq doesn't disarm, Hussein will be destroyed. What he hasn't made quite so plain is that if Hussein does finally choose to give up all his weapons of mass destruction, he will be allowed to survive. The latter would be the best outcome -- removing what the administration regards as an intolerable threat, but without the ordeal of war. And it's more plausible than exile, which would require Hussein to place his life precariously in the hands of a foreign government.

There are signs that he is looking for just this exit. On Thursday, he let U.N. weapons inspectors conduct a three-hour private interview with an Iraqi biologist, the first time a scientist has spoken without a government official present. Iraq says other scientists will do likewise. A senior U.N. official also told The Washington Post that Iraq has indicated it will accept two other demands -- letting U-2 spy planes fly over the country unmolested and passing legislation allowing inspectors to stay for the long haul.

Maybe Hussein is making small concessions to distract from the big issue -- disarmament. But maybe he's inching toward a full-scale retreat. Believe it or not, he's tried that before.

In the weeks leading up to the 1991 Gulf War, Hussein adamantly refused to relinquish his conquest of Kuwait. But once the U.S. began its air campaign in January, his attitude changed.

By mid-February, Iraq was looking for a way to escape the ground assault that was coming. On Feb. 21, notes University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape in his book, "Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War," Hussein accepted a Soviet plan requiring Iraq's "full and unconditional withdrawal" from Kuwait. When President Bush balked at the lack of a timetable, Iraq offered to be out in 21 days.

Former National Security Council staffer Kenneth Pollack says Hussein was not playing games. "He had become so desperate that he was genuinely trying to get his army out of Kuwait intact," says Pollack in his book "The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq."

But the U.S. wouldn't agree. It insisted he could have only a week to pull out -- in effect, telling him he could keep his army but would have to leave his military equipment behind. "Far from wanting Saddam to withdraw," writes Pape, "American leaders by mid-February appear to have sought to prevent the withdrawal of his army."

Gen. Colin Powell, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Gulf commander, Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf, that the administration was deathly afraid the Soviet peace plan would avert a war. "My president wants to get on with this thing," he declared.

Hussein is above all a master of survival. You don't gain control of a brutal police state and keep it for three decades without a keen instinct for self-preservation. He showed it during the Gulf War, when he chose to leave his chemical and biological weapons on the shelf rather than invite complete devastation. He showed it again afterward, when everyone expected him to be overthrown. If he sees that he can survive this time by giving up his forbidden arsenal -- and only by giving up his forbidden arsenal -- he may seize the chance.

That outcome would not please quite everyone. Administration hawks are after regime change, not mere disarmament. They don't want Hussein defanged; they want him dead. Their preference is understandable. But it would be criminal if the administration spurned the chance to solve the central problem without the grave perils of invasion and occupation.

If Bush is hoping to force Hussein into submission, he's handled this showdown perfectly. But he has to be prepared to take yes for an answer. The best wars, after all, are those you win without a fight.



To: calgal who wrote (21377)2/10/2003 1:17:29 AM
From: calgal  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27666
 
Transcript: Colin Powell on Fox News Sunday




URL:http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,78034,00.html


Sunday, February 09, 2003

Following is a transcribed excerpt from Fox News Sunday, Feb. 9, 2003.





TONY SNOW, FOX NEWS: Good morning from Fox News in Washington.

German and French officials confirmed today that the two countries will present a peace plan to the United Nations Security Council at the end of the week. The proposal calls for flooding Iraq with U.N. troops and weapons inspectors. Russia announced that it would support the plan as well.

In Iraq, the two chief weapons inspectors, Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei, met for a second day with members of Saddam Hussein's government, including the vice president. Iraq also handed over more documents to the duo.

Here to discuss what happens next is Secretary of State Colin Powell.

Secretary Powell, Germany and France evidently are putting together a proposal. Have you seen it yet?

COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: No, I haven't seen it. I've just read press reports about the proposal. But I assume it's some variation of what the French proposed at the U.N. on Wednesday after I finished my presentation, and that's some combination of additional inspectors and additional reconnaissance.

But it misses the point. It's not more inspectors that we need, it's more cooperation, far more cooperation, from Saddam Hussein is what we need. And that's not what we've been getting.

So it isn't the need for more inspectors, it's need for Saddam Hussein to come into compliance with the basic requirements of the U.N. Resolution 1441.

SNOW: It appears that Germany, France, now Russia, are still going to push through a resolution of this sort. Would you support it?

POWELL: Well, we'll -- I will not comment on a resolution that does not yet exist, but we have to keep our eye focused on the ball. The ball is Iraqi noncompliance, not the need for more inspectors.

SNOW: A lot of Americans think that the Germans and French in particular are merely trying to get in the way and bollocks up the works for the Bush administration. What's your view?

POWELL: Well, I think they are not following what the resolution called for, what 1441 called for. 1441, which passed 15 to zero, with the French voting for it, said that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction and they're in material breach of 16 previous resolutions. The French agreed to that. And we said we were giving Saddam Hussein one last chance by this resolution.

He has had that one last chance now for three months. And if he does not now come into compliance and do what he's supposed to do -- turn over all the documents, bring people forward for interviews -- if he actually did what he was supposed to do, you would only need a handful of inspectors. So more inspectors doesn't answer the question.

And what France has to do and what I think Germany has to do and all the members of the Security Council have to do is read 1441 again. This lack of cooperation by Iraq and the false declaration and all the other actions that they have taken and not taken since the resolution passed are setting -- all set the stage for the U.N. to go into session and find whether or not serious consequences are appropriate at this time.

SNOW: If the U.N. were to adopt a resolution, the Security Council were to adopt a resolution, calling for more inspectors and more U.N. forces, would that demonstrate to you that the U.N. in fact is losing credibility and relevance?

POWELL: I don't think that's going to be the issue before the U.N. The issue before the U.N. is going to be whether or not Iraq is faithfully complying with 1441. We've had more than enough time to measure Iraqi compliance, and all we've seen is noncompliance.

This coming Friday, the 14th of February, Dr. Blix and Dr. ElBaradei will report once again on the extent of Iraqi cooperation or noncooperation. And I think, at that point, the Council is going to have to start to come together and make a judgment as to what next steps should be. I don't think next steps should be let's send in more inspectors to be stiffed by the Iraqis.

SNOW: Is it any coincidence, in your mind, that this action, which I think may fairly be called a stalling action, is being supported by the three nations -- France, Germany and Russia -- that have the most extensive commercial ties right now with Iraq?

POWELL: I don't want to attribute a particular motive to them. They clearly have -- are doing everything they can to see if more time cannot be given to Iraq to comply.

If I thought Iraq was going to comply, then that would be a reasonable approach. But Iraq has demonstrated over the last several months that they have no intention of complying. So how much longer do we need to measure this noncompliance? The resolutions was clear.

POWELL: What we have is three months of noncompliance. And if the inspectors show once again and demonstrate once again, as they did the last time they reported, that that noncompliance continues, then I think it's time for the U.N. to clearly understand the seriousness of the situation and for Iraq to understand that serious consequences are going to follow.

SNOW: Do you believe that the United Nations would, in fact, pass a second resolution then authorizing the use of force, based on the assumption that next Friday Iraq will not have complied with 1441?

POWELL: I can't predict what the United Nations will do. But I think the record is pretty clear as to what Iraq has not been doing.

And more and more, with each passing day, Iraq is in greater material breach of the resolution, and I hope that the U.N. will do its duty. I hope that the U.N. will not slip into irrelevance by failing to step up to its responsibilities at this moment in history.

SNOW: And if it does not take action against Iraq, pending the report on Friday, it will slip into irrelevance, in your view?

POWELL: I think that if the United Nations, faced with continued Iraqi noncompliance, does not do something about that noncompliance, other than just say, "Well, keep noncomplying and we'll send three times as many inspectors in to watch you noncomply," then it will be slipping into irrelevance.

SNOW: Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld says the longer this drags out, the more likely war is. Do you agree? And if so, why?

POWELL: Well, I think that there has to be a limit to this. I mean, if there is not compliance -- I keep coming back to the word, because that is the word. The word is not inspections; the word is compliance.

If Iraq complies, then there will be no war. But Iraq has noncomplied, and you can't just keep this state of noncompliance going. So what Secretary Rumsfeld was saying is you have to draw a line at some point. You have to bring it to an end.

SNOW: So you are not impressed with the moves Iraq has made in the last couple of days in its meetings with Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei?

POWELL: They have made no moves that I know of. The only thing I've heard is that there have been serious conversations and a report last evening that some additional documents were turned over, but we don't know what those documents are.

But if they are real, serious documents, they should have been turned over months ago. We cannot have a situation where Iraq sort of dribbles out a little bit in the hope that it can buy off the United Nations and lead the United Nations down some path to irrelevancy.

SNOW: The United States has supplied intelligence information to the U.N. inspections teams. Is it not true that those teams have only used a tiny fraction of that intelligence?

POWELL: I can't answer that. I don't know how much of the intelligence that we provided to them they have used. But we have provided quite a bit, and I just don't know exactly how much that they've used. But we are cooperating with them fully.

SNOW: Well, it's telling that you wouldn't know how much they used. You could be able to track their movements and get some sense, so it's pretty clear that there's a substantial amount...

POWELL: I didn't say the United States government doesn't know.

SNOW: Yes.

POWELL: I'm just saying that I don't follow the exact numbers on a day-by-day basis. There are others in my department and in our government, of course, who do.

SNOW: Iraq is arguing that the evidence you laid out Wednesday is bogus, and they've been taking reporters to various sites that you presented satellite imagery. What is your response?

POWELL: I fully expected them to do that. We knew they'd jump into a PR game on Wednesday afternoon, and they did.

I can assure you that each and every piece of evidence that I put down, we have multiple sources for. And it is solid material.

And the fact that they run a few reporters out there and show the reporters what they want the reporters to see does not undercut the material that I presented last Wednesday.

SNOW: Let's talk about the link between Iraq and Al Qaida. You talked about that. Is there any direct evidence that Saddam Hussein has transferred weapons of mass destruction to Al Qaida?

POWELL: There is evidence that, over the years, Al Qaida has sought training and information and perhaps material related to weapons of mass destruction in the manner that I described in my presentation on Wednesday. I don't want to overstretch the point, but I don't want to underplay it.

It's that very nexus, that very possibility that causes us such concern. And I tried to make that case Wednesday. Terrorists, non- state terrorists, who can find a haven in a place like Iraq, and in that haven they can not only find a safe place to operate but they can perhaps find these sorts of terrible weapons and technologies that they can use to threaten the world.

SNOW: Is it your view that Ansar al-Islam in northern Iraq is, in fact, busy trying to put together factories for the manufacture of such things?

POWELL: We do know that the facility that I described in my presentation on Wednesday has been used to develop poisons, and not just from the picture of that facility but a lot of other source material we have shows that things have come out of that facility and have transited through various parts of Europe and Central Asia, reaching Western Europe.

SNOW: So in that case, in fact, Iraq has helped Al Qaida distribute these?

POWELL: One has to be a little careful here, because that part of Iraq isn't under Saddam Hussein's direct control. Although we do know that Iraqi intelligence officers have been working in that area, and there are connections that are a concern to us.

SNOW: All right, Carl Levin, who's going to be on our show later, has said that the United States -- I want to show a quote to you that pertains to this. He says, "Secretary Powell disclosed that Al Qaida has been producing and exporting poisons and toxins from a laboratory in northeastern Iraq that is beyond the control of Saddam Hussein."

He continues, "I favor prompt and forceful U.S. military action to deal with that problem, as we have done in attacking Al Qaida terrorists in Afghanistan and Yemen."

POWELL: We are constantly reviewing our military options and targets. And it isn't just a matter of a military act, you have to think of a military act at the same time that you consider the political, diplomatic and other consequences of such an act and how good a target do you have.

So I can assure you that we are constantly reviewing our military options, but I never discuss them publicly.

SNOW: But that would be a military option, then?

POWELL: We are constantly reviewing our military options, Tony.

SNOW: All right. There is also fear that Saddam Hussein, in a time of war, might unleash weapons of mass destruction.

You've spent your life in the military, for the most part. In the past, when leaders have issued such orders to their generals, as Hitler did at the end of World War II, the generals have said, "Thank you very much, but I prefer to live."

Is it not your view that Saddam may, in fact, issue such an order but his generals, valuing their lives more than his, probably won't act on it?

POWELL: If they were wise, they would come to that conclusion. I can't tell you what an Iraqi general might do, but it would be very foolish of them.

And we have made it clear that there would be consequences in any conflict for those generals who would use weapons of mass destruction against coalition forces.

We faced this problem before. We faced it during the Gulf War. And one of the great concerns I had as chairman at that time was that they might use chemicals against our forces. They did not. We made it clear that there would be consequences if leaders in the Iraqi armed forces did that, or if Iraq did it as a nation.

SNOW: Why did we withdraw our last point of contact, the Polish (inaudible) in Baghdad, from our dealings with Iraq?

POWELL: This is a judgment the Polish government made, and we respect their judgment, and they have been enormously helpful to us over the years.

SNOW: All right. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld had some fairly scathing comments to make about the possibility that NATO might not come to the aid of Turkey, which is a NATO member. Let's play that quote, and I want to follow up on it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD RUMSFELD, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: Turkey needs to be looked after in this instance. They're an ally, they're a friend, and they're the only country that's a moderate Muslim country in NATO, they're the only country that borders Iraq.

The idea that NATO would deny them NATO support in that circumstance, in my view, is inexcusable.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SNOW: Is this now a test to NATO's credibility? Germany, France and Belgium say they are going to act of veto any direct action in support of Turkey?

POWELL: Well, first of all, I agree totally with Secretary Rumsfeld. It is inappropriate for NATO to be presented with a request like this, where all that is being asked for is for planning assistance and start to make plans to assist Turkey if it becomes threatened by Iraq in the course of a conflict.

That's all that's being asked for. And for three NATO nations to say, with respect to a fourth NATO nation, "We won't even consider that at this time because of a dispute, really, we're having within the United Nation Security Council about what follows next," I think is inexcusable on the part of those countries.

And I hope they will think differently by the time that they have to make a judgment tomorrow whether they will break silence, as it is called. This is the time for NATO to rally and to stand behind one of our NATO colleagues that may be put at risk, not by the United States but by Iraq.

And so I hope that the Germans and the French and the Belgians will think differently about this over the next 24 hours.

SNOW: Final question, Republican Senators Lugar and Hagel are saying that the United States should engage in direct talks with North Korea. South Korea is saying the same thing. Will we?

POWELL: Eventually there will be talks between the United States and North Korea, I believe. But I believe it should be within a multilateral setting.

This is a multilateral problem. Imagine you're the secretary of state. You're criticized when you're unilateral, and then you get criticized when you're trying to make something multilateral, and people say it should be unilateral.

In this case, what North Korea is doing is of concern not only to the United States but to South Korea, to Japan, to China, to Russia, to the International Atomic Energy Agency, 35 nations that came together and condemned North Korea's actions.

POWELL: We should not let North Korea dictate the terms under which these conversations take place. I think there will ultimately be conversations, but I think other nations have a role to play.

Take China, for example. China has said that it is their policy that the Korean Peninsula not be nuclearized -- in fact, be denuclearized. Well, therefore, China should play an active role in making sure that that is the case. They have considerable influence with North Korea. Half their foreign aid goes to North Korea. Eighty percent of North Korea's wherewithal, with respect to energy and economic activity, comes from China. China has a role to play, and I hope China will play that role.

SNOW: Secretary Powell, thanks for joining us.

POWELL: Thank you.



To: calgal who wrote (21377)2/11/2003 11:08:50 AM
From: calgal  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27666
 
URL:http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=index2&cid=1077