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Strategies & Market Trends : Win Lose or Draw : Be A Steve, Make A Call -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (1425)	2/10/2003 9:26:26 AM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 11447

Before the Open on 2/10/03 <Via the Spear Report> Where are the Bears? Executive Summary Despite the drums of war and a declining market, it is hard to find many bears. That's bearish. Both the QQQ and SPY will reach key support soon, so watch for an oversold bounce mid-week. However, all rallies should be considered suspect, as the intermediate-term decline has resumed. We give our new downside targets for the major indices: Dow-6250, then 5000; S&P 500- 650 to 700, then, 500; Nasdaq - 975. New Consensus stocks will be discussed on Friday. Detail The market is drifting lower without a sense of fear. That's bearish. As we mentioned in Friday's TSR, while the media is preoccupied with the Iraq situation 24/7, the market is not showing signs of being particularly concerned. One can see this in the stubborn bullishness of financial newsletter writers. Like other groups of investors, financial newsletter writers function as an excellent contrary indicator when their bullishness or bearishness reaches an extreme. Crowds of any sort always hold within themselves the seeds of their demise. This is a graphic of the net difference between bullish and bearish advisors compared to the S&P 500 over the last 4 years.>> they go further to sat that the options are nor skowinf real frear because the "taking heads" and Wall Streetm based on 1991 market action are virtually universally confident the market will rally hard on the first shot, as such they fading the war to the CALL side. They say we hold that thw immense complaceny regard a "first shot" will be rally ho as a classic contrarian status that has based solely on 1991( but i 1991 the market was faded to the put side and was expecting a sell-off and got the reverse). Max