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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (8800)	2/10/2003 11:05:58 AM
From: Jack of All Trades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Talking about the 8 year cycle, could we have had a inversion after the late 80's high? If so, then should we be looking for a high in 2004/5 figuring the high was in 88/89? EDIT, for the 8 year cycle I understand that lows come faster than the highs...

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (8800)	2/10/2003 3:36:41 PM
From: 8bits	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

"After 20 years you might expect real estate prices to be 48.6% higher. But I can assure you that real estate prices would be unchanged in nominal terms and 33.2% lower in terms of (inflation adjusted) real purchasing value. On a more insightful level, you can be certain that unusual periods of time during which real estate prices rise more than incomes are certain to be followed by a correction. The late 1980s and the most recent eight year time period are examples of this type of imbalance. A rise in real estate prices higher than incomes is followed real estate prices declining relative to incomes, as certainly as day follows night. " Elroy from your statements on this thread you clearly think as well as others that real estate vis' a vis' historical pricing relative to income is overvalued. Pardon me if this has been answered before on this thread but on this basis how much do you think housing on the average is currently overvalued?