Mindmeld, thought you might be interested in what some of the SI engineers on the AMAT No Politics site, said regarding technology growth. I have included their bio as reflected on SI.
The question, when will these occur? With the E-mails from John L. and Gottfried along with these post we may have a better idea when thing will happen in the future.
Paul
>To:Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (5458)
From: Paul V.
Monday, Feb 10, 2003 10:47 PM
Respond to of 5470
Sarmad, Today, CNBC and Barrons stated the FCC Powell, will be giving us the new FCC Regulations on Thursday. Therefore, we will learn of the possible impact on VZ, SBC, Bell South, Quest, CSCO, LU, NT, Corning, etc. If what we are hearing, the Bells will be building out more of the telecommunication network. If so, what impact will this buildout have on the entire technology sectors and specifically the SEMI equipment. Won't the semi equipment maker have to start manufacturing their "green monster" equipment for the semi manufacturer so that they can produce the required equipment and future technology innovations?
How, much of a lead time does the chain require from the equipment semi, semi manufacturers to the final product.
Paul
Sun Tzu
Member Since 07/15/98
Company
Occupation/Title Unix and Internet Systems Architect
Age Thirty Something
Location New York City
College University of Waterloo, Ontario
Degree Computer Engineering (VLSI Design)
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To:Paul V. who wrote (5453)
From: Sun Tzu
Monday, Feb 10, 2003 1:42 AM
Respond to of 5469
There are three types of enterprise upgrades. First there are those that are based on application upgrades. As it has been pointed out this is usually the main engine of growth. Second, it is the capacity upgrades. This is things like running out of disk space or needing a faster server so that you can process more data records and so on. And the third is technology "upgrades" (really a shift in focus). This can be either a new way of doing business a.k.a killer app or it can be a shift in focus of the enterprise such as increasing the stance on reliability or security.
I don't see much on the way of the first. The second cannot be stopped, although companies are doing with as little as they can. And the last depends on whom you talk to. It used to be that regular upgrades were on a 1-3 year cycle, capacity was on a 2-4 year cycle, and technology was on a 4-6 year cycle. But I have to admit I don't know what is going on these days and am all ears for info.
BTW, there are two strong trends happening that I know of. The first is a massive shift of high-tech jobs to India. The second is emergence of Linux as the up and coming must have platform. I'll leave it up for debates as to the destructive and constructive effects of these trends.
ST
Name Sarmad Y. Hermiz
Member Since 02/08/99
Company
Occupation/Title Computer Systems Design / Programming
Age 52
Location Michigan
College Governors State University (Illinois)
Degree Environmental Science
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To:Paul V. who wrote (5453)
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz
Monday, Feb 10, 2003 9:00 AM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 5469
>> how long can the corporations which need servers, switches and other fast data, go without updating?
Paul, Computer and communications equipment installed prior to 1999 is completely obsolete. There was a big jump that year in the processor speed of personal computers, and 100 megabit ehternet became common. The big bulge of equipment that was installed in '99 and '00 is still functional, and only needs to be replaced if its capacity and speed are too low. But that depends on usage. I expect that equipment purchased this year is either:
for 1- new installations or additions,
or 2- replacing pre '00 equipment.
I don't expect a big jump in computer or comm equip sales this year. The base quantity of equip to be replaced grows each year. But I don't think there will be a big jump caused by obsolescence this year or next.
Sarmad
Name Lizzie Tudor
Member Since 11/27/97
Company
Occupation/Title dot com company - supply chain architect
Age between 5 and 6 dog years woof!
Location San Mateo, CA
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Degree Mathematics
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To:Paul V. who wrote (5454)
From: Lizzie Tudor
Monday, Feb 10, 2003 1:27 PM
Respond to of 5469
You should have watched bull and bears Sat. morning. They would have talked you out of the bull atmosphere. :)
Bull and bear is really quite bearish. It will be interesting to see if they change their tune if the mkt improves.
Wrt replacement cycle and outsourcing... the companies around here that outsource (amat is one) do the coding and operations overseas. This is a strain on network capacity primarily and I think some tech areas (SANs for example) are benefitting from the outsourcing trend. I don't think PCs are affected though, other than to say that there's too many win98 PCs out there (in the US) with zip drives... just not enough bodies to use them anymore with the outsourcing and layoffs.
My feeling is the outsourcing trends are going to peak in a year or so and then we'll see some recapture of many of those jobs back to the US. You just can't outsource your entire business away and expect to remain competitive. The whole reason for all of this outsourcing was based on a cost picture from 99 that is now obsolete. I don't think applied will be happy with their outsourced software, but they have never been well managed in the IT area (imo) so we'll have to see.
Lizzie< |
