War Torn
There's a new gulf in Europe — between pro-U.S. leaders and antiwar majorities in their countries
By BRUCE CRUMLEY/Paris
Colin Powell may be the acceptable face of the Bush Administration in Europe, but that didn't help the Secretary of State or his cause last week. Despite Powell's bravura performance at the Security Council, the European public remains firmly against a U.S.-led war in Iraq — with or without the U.N.'s blessing. All last week protests bubbled up in unexpected places. At the Goyas — Spain's Oscars — a procession of actors and directors took the stage wearing antiwar stickers, badges and No guerra T shirts. In the European Parliament, a group of M.E.P.s unfurled a no war banner. And at Shannon Airport in Ireland, peace activists broke into a secure hangar and vandalized U.S. military aircraft — for the second time. "I grieved after the atrocity in New York," explains Shannon protester Tim Hourigan, 27. "Then I found out that the White House was going to do the same thing [to Iraq]."
There's a huge disconnect between the antiwar sentiment of most Europeans and the pragmatic, increasingly pro-war stance of their leaders. Despite glaring exceptions, such as French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, European heads of state are quietly getting behind President Bush's view that "the game is over" for Iraq — despite poll numbers that show unmistakable hostility to war. In the Netherlands, 72% oppose even U.N.-mandated action, according to a poll by the Amsterdam and Tilburg universities; in Spain, over 70% of those surveyed by Gallup say war is unjustified; in Italy, a Eurisko poll put the percentage opposed to military action at more than two-thirds. Yet in each of these countries the Prime Minister has expressed strong support for the U.S. approach. How did Europeans and their leaders drift so far apart?
In some ways, the situation now "is similar to the crisis in the 1980s, when Pershing missiles arrived in Europe," says Michael Gros, head of the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels. "The overwhelming opinion of the general public was against, but the German government at the time took the difficult decision to go ahead and was subsequently proved right. I think the leaders who have backed the U.S. will be proved right in the end."
These leaders say that if Iraq keeps hiding its weapons from the U.N. inspectors, wiretapping the inspectors themselves and refusing to disarm — as Powell persuasively argued it has been doing — then the U.S. and its allies will have no choice but to act. That's certainly the opinion of British Prime Minister Tony Blair, George W. Bush's strongest advocate in Europe despite widespread opposition within his country and dissent in his cabinet. Other leaders may be calculating that the Americans will do what they want anyway, so the smart play is to be by their side. But not Blair. "I do not want to be the Prime Minister when people point the finger back at history and say, 'You knew perfectly well that those threats were there and you did nothing about it,'" Blair told the House of Commons last week. He also calculates that public opposition will fade if the war is quick and relatively clean. If things go badly wrong, he knows he could find himself out of a job.
Powell's presentation was meant to demolish the European argument that the weapons inspectors simply need "more time." But much of the European press dismissed his message; powell doesn't win the battle of proof, said Le Figaro. With that kind of coverage, there was little chance Powell would change European opinion.
But it didn't help Powell's case when he cited a U.K. dossier that turned out to be not the work of MI6 sleuths, but in large part a patchwork of previously published texts — some of it plagiarized from a thesis by a 29-year-old Californian student. Then U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld got into the act. Before arriving at a security conference in Munich, Rumsfeld kissed off Germany once and for all: "There are three or four countries that have said they won't do anything [in a war against Iraq]," he said Wednesday. "I believe Libya, Cuba and Germany are the ones that have indicated they won't help in any respect." Germans interpreted Rumsfeld's remark as yet more evidence that America equates opposition to war with treachery. peace, not war, mr. rumsfeld! blared the only English words on the front page of Munich's Abendzeitung. Protesters waved signs saying rummy go home!
European leaders who support the U.S. position have a lot to lose unless they start making a stronger case to their constituents — and soon. Coalitions are threatening to boil over. In Italy, Silvio Berlusconi was shouted down during a speech last week by M.P.s chanting antiwar slogans. In Portugal, Prime Minister José Manuel Durão Barroso was publicly rebuked by President Jorge Sampaio for backing "a doctrine that contains grave risks, and is contrary to international law."
In Eastern and Central Europe, the calculations are even more complex. Gratitude toward America is still fresh in the region liberated in 1989, yet antiwar feeling also runs high. In the Czech Republic, 67% oppose a U.N.-mandated war. In Hungary, the figure is 76%. "The Central European democracies are caught between a rock and a hard place," says Prague political analyst Jiri Pehe. If they oppose a war, they offend the U.S.; if they back a war, they alienate their electorate. "No matter what they do, they wrong somebody," Pehe says.
Alexandr Vondra, a former Czech ambassador to the U.S. who helped convince Vaclav Havel to sign a European letter of support for Bush, argues that real leadership means not bending to fickle public opinion, but making difficult and unpopular decisions. He says that history will prove that a hard line was the only way to deal with Saddam: "I am happy that the people are careful before making such a serious decision. But politicians cannot just float on public opinion. With a serious question like war, there must be leadership. Leaders have vital information that they cannot always share with their population." So far most Europeans disagree, and millions of them will make their opposition known this weekend at protest rallies across Europe. With those crowds in mind, Blair and the other pro-U.S. European leaders must be hoping that American soldiers soon meet another kind of crowd — cheering, joyful mobs in the streets of liberated Baghdad. That's about the only thing that could make Europeans feel good about this war.
Look at the cartoon on page 2
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