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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (27932)	2/11/2003 7:28:10 AM
From: Claude M	Respond to of 36161

Very very brillant post! Wish I read it 20 years ago! thanks, Claude M

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (27932)	2/11/2003 9:31:28 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

late December, you warned of pullback at #350 (memory?) I may tend toward sensational, but you toward lapses of memory as for JPMorgan resolution, tick-tock is right they are not resolved in their straightjacket as for #3000, what the hell are you saying? since it hasnt yet hit #3000, it wont? people in 1975 were laughing at calls for #500 I will focus instead on next lines to be broken, like #400 and let #3000 take care of itself how about clueing in RichRussell on his #3000 Dow meet call ??? write him an email his record is more established than yours you forget that derivatives can hold things together for a while they are heavily in use now, creating more likelihood of events in the near future just because things have not gotten more out of control, doesnt mean they wont when real estate falters more, you will eat crow there also not only are a few coastal zones at deep risk now, but midland Denver also supply is weighing down many local markets now I learned about gravity in physics class the economic and financial illiteracy might extend to physics the weakening dollar will undermine easy credit and rosey mortgage rates just a matter of time as you say, tick-tock respectfully altho testily / jim

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (27932)	2/11/2003 10:27:29 AM
From: Silver Super Bull	Respond to of 36161

Slider, Your comments are certainly thought-provoking. However, it is clear that gold in 1997-1998 was clearly in a bear-market rally. The same could be said of 1993-1996, as well as a few other post-1980 rallies. If we are indeed in a new bull market in gold, which I strongly believe we are, then a bull market will react differently than bear-market rallies. Also, while one can argue how much of a dire predicament the financial system is in, one has to admit that measures such as the current account deficit, federal deficit and debt, unemployment, dollar, levels of indebtedness, bankruptcies, etc., etc., all show worrisome (if not very worrisome) trends and levels. DB

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (27932)	2/11/2003 11:04:36 AM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 36161

Slider, I appreciate your comments and read them with great interest. I admit to being amazed by the markets ability to weather the fiancial storms thus far - bursting of the Asian tiger bubble, Brazil, Argentina, Russia , LTCM bailout, bursting of the Nasdaq et.al. I can appreciate that people can feel that the markets are almost invincible after navigating such financial storms. It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve has nearly exhausted stimulative effect of rate cuts. For the first time since the 1930s rate cuts that began in 2001 have failed to stimulate the markets. For a time Wall ST and mainstream economists took comfort in the historic fact that monetary policy works with a lag - well we're still waiting. I believe that there is a point when the Fed's attempts to inflate are overcome by the deflationary effects of the existing debt. For a while we had a virtuous circle where the booming stock and bond markets attracted foreign capital boosting the dollar and further stimulating US financial markets - it seems clear to me that game is over. The US absorbs 80% of the world's savings can it go higher ? perhaps. It takes tremendous capital flows just for the US$ to maintain its value. We must realize however that many of the fundamentals which fueled the 90s mania are no longer present questionable budget surplus turn deficit, account deficit continues to grow. We can plainly see that the US corporate profit miracle was not as miraculous as Wall St would have us believe. NIPA profits peaked in 3Q97 but reported finacial profits continued to grow. We now see the impact of stock options accouinting and capital gains among other factors. My intentions are not to ankle bite -g- but to further stimulate the great thinking happening on this thread. I am quite impressed with the trading ability of some of the posters here. Respectfully, Mike please pardon the typos ;)