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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7652)	2/11/2003 10:12:21 AM
From: paul ross	Respond to of 39344

Last 3 gold cycles occurred when the stock market was in a bull market. Last bull cycle(I believe) to occur during a negative real interest rate environment was 1978-80. Gold stock peak has not preceded the metal price peak in last few cycles.(BTW HUI and XAU peaked in Q1 of 1996) Gold stock bull is as long as the preceding bear. Bear market from 1996-2001, 5 years.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7652)	2/11/2003 11:41:01 AM
From: jrhana	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

Slider thank you for your reply. I understand nothing goes up forever; however bulls do climb walls of worry. I have read reams of negative commentary since I first bought in with Gold at around $260. Besides the argument that POG has climbed a lot and therefore must crash down, what other clues to use for a significant IT/LT top here. What technical/fundamental landmarks did you use? All my landmarks still look positive I am hoping we just made a significant bounce off of $360.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7652)	2/11/2003 3:59:20 PM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

Slider: I would take issue with your assertion that the last secular gold market ended in 1997, if that is your position. I think the high of about 800 in late sixties early seventies ???? was the end of the last secular bull and since then we have just had cyclical bull markets in gold. I for one do think that a huge secular bull in gold is in the making. While all of what you said is true in the end, I have always believed and still do that the strength of the dollar determines the price of gold and we are going into a long term period of a very weak dollar. I am in the camp of those who believe we will see much higher prices. But for now I think most of the money has been made on this leg and gold will need a correction before it can move up significantly. I think it will be very instructive to watch that correction and compare it with past corrections of recent vintage for clues as to whether the long term bulls are correct or whether you are correct. Little joe