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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (27948)	2/11/2003 11:15:11 AM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 36161

Slider, Just a few notes here, via the Gertrude, to a fellow hovercraft submariner, before I put down the Nebuchadnezzar in some subsea/subterrainian dark depth to await the sentinels that must surely come: geocities.com the $425-$450 is where I buy puts heavy, along with some open shorts....as I think that's where history has dictated that the reward is in cyclical volatility back to the downside...especially in the goldstocks/HUI. Nothing wrong with that, if I am still in sector at that price range, which I can not possibly tell at this time, it would only be with some decent hedging of positions. A few notes on our contrasting and similar views. There are similarities to the OSX ups and downs and the HUI ups and downs. But they are similarities only and vary in scale, time dimension, sentiment history, and most importantly, market impact. Market impact is an area I would like to say a few words. Oil at $100 a barrel, the 1979 equivalent inflation adjusted equivalent of then till now, would be detrimental in the extreme to the markets and the economy. Brings to mind the D word. OTOH, the markets were doing quite well 1982-1989 while GOLD moved in a range of 310-510 dollars. This is an important point in a world that is in need of REFLATION after a HUGE Bubble Bust. Gold is not just the lesser of two evils (among many evils) here for economic planners to choose from, it is a MINISCULE market component compared to the energy market. Inflation adjusted (an oxymoron I know, but useful for the dollar price conscious), POG at 360 now equals what in 1982? 180? Close enough for government work. Instead of a suit of clothes, let us take a new nice neighborhood brick rancher circa 1975. About 25K then, how much now? Gold averaged about 150 1975-78, it's first time in the free market in decades, how much should it be valued now?? Bottom line, will I be nervous in the low to mid 400's, you bet! Will I say that is the top? NO! I will say I don't know where the top is! Could this be it now? Maybe, but I doubt it. What this pullback is, IMHO, is another July type manipulation inspired profit taking point, nothing more, nothing less. But only time will tell. Signing off on the Gertrude, looking for a dark depth, rigged for Silent Station, one hand on the EMP! Best Regards, Roebear