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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (38883)	2/13/2003 1:07:59 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71300

[madtrader] Thu Feb 13, 10:00am PST T2108 The TC2000 market "oscillator" that measures percentages of stocks above their 40 DMA. Still falling, and falling fast in the past 2 days. Just 2 days prior, it was still above 30%, now it is closer to 20%. With this pace, we are probably within a day or so of a very tradable bottom. I suspect most traders won't want to stick their neck out on the long side ahead of the long weekend. I am thinking of scaling in some defined risk longs at this level but have yet to pull the trigger. Since I have yet to see even a small intraday reversal. I have learned from Arch Crawford of the importance of market extremes corresponding to moon calendars. Well, Feb 16 is full moon, but it falls on a Sunday, and Monday is closed for trading, it makes it a bit difficult to game. My gut tells me something very important will happen this weekend. Be it a terrorist attack, Saddam waving the white flag, North Koreans launching a surprise attack, or US attacking either Iraq or Korea. I don't know. I do know from experience that full moons makes people go whacko. none. [madtrader] Thu Feb 13, 8:12am PST market We are almost there, the potential bounce levels I talked about yesterday. VIX is once again bumping aginst the 40 range. We are either at the low, at close to the last leg of it. The danger of course is that the last leg can be a steep fall still. If you are aggressive, this is a level to start scaling in for the longs. Otherwise, you are better of waiting for a reversal. Don't try to catch a falling knife.