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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (16265)	2/12/2003 1:20:47 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

I am curious as to who you think would emerge to challenge the USA in real GDP growth? I believe this is obvious. China M

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (16265)	2/12/2003 2:43:23 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Lizzie read some history. My vote: China. The US appears to be in a K-Cycle winter. Usually at this point economic leadership is passed to the largest creditor 'nation' (or economic zone). they effectively have the pool of world savings. In 1932 despite the Great Depression The US was the largest creditor nation, due to WW1 financing. Now it is the largest debtor. Japan had the largest savings, but the government is stealing these and 'investing' them in projects that will have no real return. The current value of savings there is therefore debateable. The economic zone to takeover leadership is therefore Asia/Japan. They have savings, and they (exc. Japan) are investing them in future productive capacity. The US solution is Fed-Man McTeer's idea - borrow, spend and consume. "Help the economy, buy an SUV!". Just listen to the stuff coming out of The Fed - Bernanke and McTeer - "Do these people sound like credible people that have the economy under control". The US is completely reliant on external savings (foreigners) to finance their lifestyle. It is a great racket: "If someone is fool enough to lend me money; I hope they dont consider me stoopid enough to give them it back". Japan's debt is internal, which is why they can never get their currency to weaken. I would suggest you read up a little economic history and see how the US - a minor financial power in the 1800s - took over from the UK as the world's main (financial) superpower. Productive labour -> Savings -> Investment. I feel that anyone looking for similarities over the last 30 years to measure exactly what we may be going through is not looking at a long enough period. Look at the history before the 1800's to now. Just my 0.02$. -macavity