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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nsumir81 who wrote (16270)	2/12/2003 7:21:58 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

History is not a bad guide! My view is that everyone is calling the bottom and they are unaware what a catastrophic situation the US economy is in. This will be a case study for behavioural psychologists for years to come. I consider the delusion in this bear to be worse than the delusion in the bull. 12 rate cuts and NO Effect! There has been 2 instances in the last 100 yrs when rate cuts of this magnitude have failed: Japan1989 USA1929 But people want to equate the situation to a typical cyclical bear market recession. This cannot be the case! 4 down years is impossible? How about 5 consecutive yrs of 20%+ growth on the $SPX? That's usual, I suppose, eh? What are the odds of this happening if you had called it in 1994. Oh not enough data then was there? If this year is a down year, and people start repeating this crap next year; then we will have 5 down years. What about the Presidential Cycle? Well this failed after the 1929 crash, but that can't happen again, eh? No similarity - they did not have our productivity. You can point to all these similarities and The PermaBulls just do not want to consider the possibility, yet alone the probability that we may just have further down to go before we get a decent 1 year + rise. From 1982 - 2000 the $SPX had just 1 down year That's fine eh? Normal? Of course. Yes, it is a question of history, or patterns. The last secular bull whether you call it 74-2000 or 82-2000 blew apart all records in terms of momentum strength, duration and valuation. But as the pendulum swings back most expect that we are just going to stop here and re-continue the good times. I would prefer to trade an equity bull market rather than a bear or sideways one, but I would be in denial if I think we are about to enter one soon. If you believe in The Stages of Grief then despite 3 down years we may have only just started. Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance. People are only now just starting to get angry. We are starting to see the blame and witchhunts beginning last year. "We woz tricked!" "It's not fair!" " He made me buy MSFT at 115" Let's hope that we get to the acceptance stage as quickly as possible. Bull Markets are simply more fun - the real ones not the imaginary ones that is! Bull or Bear - just respect your stops! Short $OEX -macavity