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To: Tomas who wrote (18219)	2/12/2003 10:44:34 AM
From: Tomas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206092

IEA Lifts 2003 Oil-Demand Outlook on Weather, China (Update2) By Alex Lawler Paris, Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Oil demand this year will rise more than expected, returning to growth rates seen during the 1990s, because of colder-than-normal weather and increasing use in China, the International Energy Agency said. Consumers will use 78.01 million barrels of oil a day this year, 80,000 more than expected last month and up 1.12 million from 2002's rate, said the agency, an adviser to 26 nations on oil policy. This quarter, world demand will be 400,000 barrels a day higher than expected last month, at 78.2 million barrels. Oil demand in China will rise by 2.7 percent this year, faster than in Europe and the rest of Asia, the IEA said. In the U.S., the top oil consumer, snow in the East Coast helped consumption in January to average a record high of 20.13 million barrels a day, based on preliminary figures, the IEA said. With demand rising and Venezuelan exports reduced, oil inventories declined. In December, inventories fell 41 million barrels to 2.515 billion in nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the IEA said. That equaled 51 days of demand, five less than the same time a year earlier. U.S. Refineries In the U.S., oil refineries may process less fuel this month than in January because of maintenance, the report said. Should cold weather prompt refineries to focus on making distillates, a group of fuels including heating oil, gasoline inventories may fall ``well short'' of peak summer demand, the agency said. World oil production in January averaged 77.58 million barrels a day, 1.19 million more than in December, mainly because OPEC nations opened the taps to make up the loss of supply from Venezuela. Output from the 10 OPEC countries bound by quotas was 23.17 million barrels a day, up 717,000 barrels from December, the agency said. Most of the extra oil came from Saudi Arabia, the top exporter. OPEC member Iraq has no quota. Capacity Dwindling The 11-nation OPEC holds almost 80 percent of oil reserves and pumps only a third of the world's supply because members restrain output to bolster prices. The Venezuelan strike has lowered the amount of spare oil capacity the group can bring on stream to meet shortages. Excluding Venezuela and Iraq, OPEC in January held 2.28 million barrels a day of idle oil capacity -- insufficient to cover Iraq's January production, the IEA estimated.

To: Tomas who wrote (18219)	2/20/2003 9:54:31 AM
From: Tomas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206092

DoE vs expectations (million barrels) Expectations DoE Bloomberg Reuters Crude +3.1 +0.4 -1.0 Gasoline -1.4 +0.5 -0.5 Distillates -4.6 -2.7 -3.0 -------------------------------------------------- Total -2.9 -1.8 -3.6 Crude Oil Inventories: DoE 272,900 Distillate inventories were down 24% from a year earlier.