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To: bcrafty who wrote (66063)	2/12/2003 12:35:43 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 209892

War rally: Yes- 2,3 weeks....corrective (of down)...may be delayed in starting (ergo, spurt, sell-off, and then rally a few days into bomb drop).. BTW- I am assuming, that we will be bombing for (at least) a couple weeks before troops really move in..anyone heard anything else (strategy)

To: bcrafty who wrote (66063)	2/12/2003 12:43:13 PM
From: Shack	Respond to of 209892

I think we will indeed rally after an initial dump. 1) Yes 2) 3-4 weeks

To: bcrafty who wrote (66063)	2/12/2003 12:44:08 PM
From: jjstingray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

No. Everyone is expecting a rally. I think we will dump.

To: bcrafty who wrote (66063)	2/12/2003 12:47:02 PM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 209892

bc -- I can't answer that question, cuz I think it entirely depends on the action leading INTO the war. For instance, if we decline down to, say, 7200 dow with some decent selling right before war starts, then yes we'll rally 10%. If we rise from here starting today/tomorrow, and have a decent move up into the start of conflict, then I'd go with no. Sorry to be difficult, but I can't say one without the other. the freep

To: bcrafty who wrote (66063)	2/12/2003 12:52:16 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 209892

I believe we will rally, but it will only be a coincidence that it happens at the same time as the start of things in Iraq. The new moon is a turn date, so that's got more to do with it (and the weekly charts bottoming at that time) than any stupid war. Turn on 3-13 could be the end of any bounce (enough to take care of Max Pain for March).

To: bcrafty who wrote (66063)	2/12/2003 1:15:50 PM
From: Paul Shread	Respond to of 209892

I think there will be a rally, but I think it will be less than 10%. If it makes it that far, it won't go much further, IMHO. Maybe a few weeks max.

To: bcrafty who wrote (66063)	2/12/2003 2:12:02 PM
From: SFW	Respond to of 209892

I do expect a rally when the Air strikes begin. It will last until the ground troops go in, whenever that is. At that point I expect that we will start a significant leg down.

To: bcrafty who wrote (66063)	2/16/2003 9:00:49 PM
From: bcrafty	Respond to of 209892

"WAR RALLY" POLL RESULTS Thanks to all who participated in my poll last week on the possibility of a much discussed "war rally." My poll was conducted here and also on Dr. Bob's board, and the results I list below are the combined responses from both boards. The poll asked two questions: (A) Will there be a rally upon a US military strike on Iraq? (yes or no only) and (B) If you answered yes to part A above, how long do you anticipate the rally to last? (weeks or months only) For the purpose of this poll the word "rally" was defined as being a rise of 10% or more on Dow from whatever level it is at when the rally commences. The results are 7 voting no and 14 voting yes. However 2 of those yes votes said the rise will be less than 10%. Of those that voted yes, the length of time they predicted the rally to last was varied, as short as "3 days" to as long as "months." More specifically, here is how the length of time came out: 3 days - 1 vote 1 week - 2 2-3 weeks - 3 3-4 weeks - 3 "weeks" - 2 "months" - 1 unspecified - 2