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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (16277)	2/12/2003 2:20:31 PM
From: eddieww	Respond to of 19219

The question, if you remember, was GDP growth. There is no question that China GDP growth has been outstripping nearly everyone for more than a decade, even discounting the probability that their govmt statistics are very overstated. I basically agree that China could be vulnerable to "hot money" flows out of the country due to problems in their banking sector. I think they lie about the magnitude of insolvency and bad loans to "zombie" govmnt and military owned entities. However, it is problematic to contemplate how installed plant and equipment, as distinguished from financial capital, could be moved from the country. Just as regional disparities in standard of living and economic health within the US have been averaging away for the past century, so will national disparities disappear over time if the trend of globalization continues. This leveling of standards of living favors emerging economies over advanced ones. One can only hope that the globalists are correct that the emerging economies will be pulled up without creating dislocations, and declining standards of living, in the advanced economies such as the US, western Europe, and Japan. China, given it's size and the current disparities vis-a-vis our standard of living, seems destined to be a faster growth story for the forseeable future unless the politicians there screw the pooch. I think that culturally, the chinese people are a mercantilist lot. In most of Asia the ethnic chinese minorities have come to dominate commerce, partially by "crony capitalism". But the chinese, because of this proclivity, are "sharp customers", and I wonder, in the end, how much money will be made in China by non-chinese.