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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rkral who wrote (32273)	2/12/2003 6:36:10 PM
From: cfoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196851

Are you suggesting the lag is usually on the order of 3 months? I believe QCOM has said they use a formula to estimate royalties in a just-completed quarter, since they are usually still getting royalty reports in at the time of the quarterly eps announcement. The exception would be fiscal Q4 (Jul-Sep) where they report a couple of weeks later and probably have most if not all of the royalty reports in. If we don't see QTL royalties and EBT reflect the 29 million MSM shipments of last quarter, would you become concerned about inventory buildup, or manufacturers not reporting royalties, or the negative impact of 2% vs. 5% royalties, or .... ? If there was a noticeable shortfall, it could mean any or all of the reasons you suggest. I test my forecast of royalties by calculating QTL revenue as a percent of QCT revenue. I will have to see what the actual revenue numbers are in fiscal Q2 and compare them to the past to see if there is a noticeable difference. Personally, I don't think there will be any shortfall.