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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (73406)	2/12/2003 7:13:18 PM
From: bela_ghoulashi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Non, mon General February 12, 2003 Chirac is leading France into a cul-de-sac In his new role as Liberty leading the People in revolt against the overweening might of the United States, Jacques Chirac is enjoying the best domestic reviews of his career. Four out of five French voters applaud his audacity in seeking to hobble what they wrongly depict as a relentless American juggernaut, reckless of the risks that war in Iraq must entail. Even in Britain, opinion polls lend support to his claim to be closer than is Tony Blair to a European public mood which has rarely been more anti-American or more dubious about the beneficence of American power. Not for the first time, this most populist of French Presidents has let popularity turn his head. As recently as last month, the Elysée was playing all sides against the middle, insisting that war was not inevitable, must if at all possible be avoided and must have the assent of the Security Council, while at the same time quietly readying France’s sole aircraft carrier for action in the Gulf. But M Chirac has since given every impression of throwing caution to the winds. To play the familiar Gaullist role of “most awkward ally” is one thing; to align France with outright pacifism — German pacificism at that — is an entirely different matter. M Chirac appears to believe that he has donned the Gaullist mantle; but France’s championing of what Jack Straw yesterday dismissed as “procrastination and delay” over Iraq has almost nothing in common with de Gaulle’s “certaine idée de la France” as a robust “third force” on the global scene. The misnamed Franco-German “axis of peace” has riven Europe, where 18 governments have now placed on record their support for the United States, and set Nato at war with itself on an issue — Turkey’s appeal for help to defend itself against attack — which should have been beyond dispute. Their ill-conceived plan to “reinforce” UN inspections will do nothing but embolden Saddam Hussein to play for time which he does not have, thus bringing war closer. M Chirac has made strenuous efforts to win Vladimir Putin to the camp of anti-Americanism; he is actively wooing China. He has led the French to believe that he will wield its veto against a second Security Council resolution authorising the use of force. He will now be under intense domestic pressure to do that, to the grave detriment of the world order that he insists France is acting to uphold. And he may find that France has consigned itself to unsplendid isolation in the anteroom occupied by history’s losers. President Putin’s assertion that he remains opposed to war means less than M Chirac may suppose. Russia was never likely to display its hand, even after the UN inspectors deliver their report this Friday, unless and until it was called upon to vote on a final, decisive, resolution. The same goes for China. But they are likely ultimately to support action to disarm Saddam because both are exposed to Islamist insurgencies and are acutely alarmed by the possibility that rogue states with weapons of mass destruction could collude with Islamist terrorists. Their fear of “dirty bombs” in Beijing or Moscow will probably, for both, be decisive. The response to Iraq will define world politics for years to come. M Chirac has entered the final stretch of the diplomatic confrontation with Saddam Hussein with no obvious exit strategy. He is most likely to start searching for one if Britain and the US make clear that they intend to press ahead speedily with a second resolution. They should do so even if the result is a French veto — a veto that would be disastrous for the Security Council, but suicidal for France’s influence in the world. Some in the Chirac camp may already be preparing the retreat; the ultra-loyal Alain Juppé yesterday recalled France’s “debt of blood” to America. Even France can change its mind, although it is difficult to see how M Chirac can do so now without courting ridicule to his right, and fury to his left. It is more difficult to see how France, after this performance, can refashion itself as Washington’s comrade in arms. M Chirac is riding high today; but he is leading France into a cul-de-sac. timesonline.co.uk