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Politics : DON'T START THE WAR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: coug who wrote (7736)	2/12/2003 11:05:34 PM
From: PartyTime	Respond to of 25898

Hear out the German plan THE Iraq equation is suddenly not as clear-cut as the United States would want it. Germany, with the tacit support of France - collectively the 'old Europe' in US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's unintelligent put-down of Nato stalwarts - is reportedly favouring a broadening of the weapons inspection, backed by United Nations troops. The whole of Iraq will be declared a no-fly zone. The duo is having one last throw at peaceful dismantling of the Iraqi arsenal, trusting this can avert war. Russian President Vladimir Putin is said to be keen on the idea. He was last in Berlin being apprised of it by Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, and is now visiting Paris to hear what President Jacques Chirac has to say about war-avoidance. All this has the appearance of grasping at straws, but the German proposal demands a careful hearing, not least because failure by UN Security Council principals to exhaust all credible means of preventing a catastrophe will leave a dastardly legacy. Reports say the plan will be presented to the council on Friday, concurrent with an update by chief weapons inspectors Messrs Mohamed El-Baradei and Hans Blix after their talks in Baghdad at the weekend. The German proposal may look to the Americans like a diplomatic ambush, and an upset Secretary of State Colin Powell called it a 'diversion, not a solution'. Mr Powell chooses his words more carefully than comparable US officials. His calm analysis or gut instinct over the matter, whichever the case, may well turn out to be a correct reading. As the US sees it, Iraq will not comply with the newest resolution on disarmament, as had been the case with previous orders going back a decade. Why would Mr Saddam Hussein now effectively cede sovereignty, already circumscribed by a third, by having the country's entire air space given over to foreign control? It is compelling, but the US will reinforce considerably its stature as keeper of the peace if it did not try to second-guess any plan which has the same objective it has professed to have, which is to ensure that Iraq is relieved of the means of doing mischief to others. Two fresh factors ought to be taken into account. Mr El-Baradei and Mr Blix returned from Baghdad encouraged, they said, that 'Iraq is beginning to have a change of heart' in cooperating with inspectors. In Brussels yesterday, Germany, France and Belgium vetoed Nato plans to provide Turkey with protective weapons if war broke out. Without Awacs surveillance planes, anti-missile units and protective agents against chemical poisons, Turkey would come off badly in counter-strikes, as it shares a border with Iraq. But the setback is not considered overly serious, and neither need the difference of opinion between the US and key Nato allies be made too much of. Altruism, alas, is low on the hierarchy of principles here. The French TotalFinaElf company has deals to develop the Majnoon and Nahr Umar fields, which France wants to ensure are not threatened in a US military occupation. France has also a large Muslim population, and Mr Chirac is mindful of the political cost war would exact. Chancellor Schroeder conversely could be said to be riding on the German people's aversion to war (just as the French are) to shore up his weakened position, owing to a stalled economy and election defeats in Hesse and Lower Saxony. And France, with veto power, could yet go along with the US eventually. In the complex calculus, what is important is that the US shows it wants to give peace every possible chance, and not foreclose on it. straitstimes.asia1.com.sg