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To: velociraptor_ who wrote (7829)	2/13/2003 1:32:26 AM
From: Dr. Jeff	Respond to of 10157

<<What is even better is to tun the cause and effect around. In other words, what if the grim situations around the world are the result of the decline and not the other way around. >>> Bingo! Exactly my thoughts. I would also add that the insane mania we had - spawned an excess of arrogance in our country. The end result being the world collectively built up envy, then hatred, toward our opulent and holier-than-thou attitude infested country. Also, comparisons to the Gulf war in '91 are absurd because we weren't in a stock market, mortgage finance, consumer credit and dollar bubble then. If anything, all those bubbles only had their baby teeth..........

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (7829)	2/13/2003 1:40:34 AM
From: oldirtybastard	Respond to of 10157

if everyone understood that we'd have a world full of nihilists and i don't think that would work lol, easier for most to just take the blue pill and follow along.

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (7829)	2/13/2003 3:48:34 AM
From: Agamemnon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

"The Federal Reserve's greatest nightmare is that OPEC will switch its international transactions from a dollar standard to a euro standard. Iraq actually made this switch in Nov. 2000 (when the euro was worth around 80 cents), and has actually made off like a bandit considering the dollar's steady depreciation against the euro. (Note: the dollar declined 17% against the euro in 2002.) "The real reason the Bush administration wants a puppet government in Iraq -- or more importantly, the reason why the corporate-military-industrial network conglomerate wants a puppet government in Iraq -- is so that it will revert back to a dollar standard and stay that way." (While also hoping to veto any wider OPEC momentum towards the euro, especially from Iran -- the 2nd largest OPEC producer who is actively discussing a switch to euros for its oil exports)." ratical.org

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (7829)	2/13/2003 8:39:33 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

Velo - In accord. I am coming to the view that all news is irrelevant, and that one has to change one's concept of cause and effect. I am improving my p&l by ignoring all notions of causal links. If I am wrong in a position: then that is what stops are for. I am looking over significant dates at The Market, and I have found it hard to find a period where bad/disasterous news effectively turned a bull market down, or good/outstanding news turned a bear market up. Look at the Market before and after the JFK assassination - I was staggered: It effectively shrugged it off! If you tell people this, they look at you as if you are a loony. That is before you start mentioning 72 year cycles, Kondratieff, Dow/Gold ratios and the like. LOL! I just read the news to try and guage what popular ideas are at the moment to guage sentiment (and for the agony aunt articles) -macavity

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (7829)	2/13/2003 9:34:32 AM
From: Rainier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

Actually, I'm beginning to come around to Prechter's idea that all systems (be they financial markets, governments, culture, etc.) created by humans are ultimately driven by shared mood trends. Thus, the issue isn't whether the market drives world events or vice versa, but that shifts in sentiment cause simultaneous changes throughout society. Expansion of PE ratios due to excessive optimism was what really drove the stock market bubble, not any sustainable earnings growth. This same optimism led us to buy into the whole peace dividend concept once the USSR fell (and thus divert money from military spending to social programs and contemplate national health care programs). Anyway, this has been far more eloquently explained by Prechter if anyone is interested. Edit: Just saw that macavity and skinowski have made the same point. Hmm, maybe this theory is becoming too main-stream <g>. I have to admit, the desire of so many of us to have original takes on the market and being suspect if too many come to the same conclusions cracks me up!