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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (9529)2/13/2003 3:14:25 PM
From: The Fix  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 24921
 
Welcome back Kerm! I've always looked highly upon your Oil/Gas insight.

Have you heard anything about a possible Nigerian Oil workers strike? I believe that this would have a great impact on OPEC. Nigeria has approx. 2.5 mil/day output if I'm not mistaken.

As far as RXI goes, Reading into the NR's I get a sense that they are looking to sell off Ecuador in some way. Am I reading too much into something that's not there.

fIXER



To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (9529)2/14/2003 12:42:09 AM
From: Kerm Yerman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 24921
 
Kerm's Tier III Portfolio Material Change

I held 1500 shares (Investment of $2400) of Boundary Creek Resources (BNR) which in turn was bought out by Bow Valley Energy. (BVX)

I exchanged 1500 shares of BNR for 2,250 shares of BVX. (1-1/2 BVX for 1 BNR)

After review of Bow Valley, I am going to retain those shares.

In addition, effective today - I acquired an additional 1750 shares @ $2.40/share.

Here's some key factors behind my decision to retain and increase my holdings in Bow Valley.

They established a land position in Canada and have already established production in the neighborhood of 2300 boe/d. Total production from there and the North Sea is roughly 4500 boe/d. Year ago production was 1600 boe/d. They are planning to exit 2003 at approximately 5000 boe/d. They are currently into a 7 well 1st quarter program. Keep in mind, the above mentioned forecast does not factor any exploration success.

2003 CAPEX is $35 million, split about 50/50 between their two areas of operation. The vast majority of the budget is for exploration. Any success in exploration drilling would have a sizable impact in the company's progress, as well as the share price.

Forecasted cash flow for 2003 is $0.60, currently 4X the current share price.

The company has minimum debt.

Most everyone is aware of the giant exploration success EnCana has experienced in their Buzzard discovery. For those of you who aren't familiar with it - go to Canada Newswire and search through EnCana's news releases. BVX has a 25% interest in the adjacent North Sea block for a look alike Buzzard exploratory drilling. They also have a 12-1/2% interest in another nearby test. This is exciting stuff. Drilling of these 2 wells will commence in either March or April. The look alike Buzzard test will be the second well drilled.

Because the company is exploration driven, I believe purchasing shares at a multiple of 4X forecasted 2003 cash flow is well warranted. There is tremendous upside with any reasonable exploration success.

This holding is currently in my Tier III portfolio. Do to the makeup of the company after the BNR acquisition, I am elevating shares of this company into my Tier II portfolio.