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To: macavity who wrote (7851)	2/13/2003 11:50:03 AM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Respond to of 10157

"Boo-Hoo, I cant really be the sucker who paid the top, can I?" bingo. and that's just a fancy way of describing hubris.

To: macavity who wrote (7851)	2/13/2003 12:02:30 PM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

Interesting article on RealMoney by Aaron Task. Basically saying the same thing that we have been discussing here. Charts May Influence Market More Than War ....While only fanatic chart readers would contend geopolitics are irrelevant, a war and the test of the lows are arguably coincidental. LOL! thestreet.com The level of rationalisation of this descent is so high. I have gone on record as saying I believe that we will have a 10% range down day very soon. I actually thought it would have happened by now, but looking at past charts I am more convinced that we have to be kissing support levels. If you look at most crashes - esp 1987, The Market was (reasonably) oversold before the fall on Daily and Weekly. It was also near significant support, before the major down day. In fact 9-11 bore these exact characteristics on 10Sep2001. My read on The Market now is as follows: There are NO BUYERS - no follow through from reversals for basically 1 month now. The SELLING has not begun - no incresing volume in downmove. *Sentiment is not climactically(?) fearful. It is complacent. My view is if we break support, The Plunge will be exceptionally forceful. All the longs have bought in anticipation of The Pres Cycle, 3 strikes and you are up, January Effect etc., etc.. Bank of America even raised their equity weighting recently citing the fact that we are "too oversold". talking my book, as usual. Now off to bed* -macavity