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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (67805)	2/13/2003 12:54:49 PM
From: chomolungma	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Turkish inflation ran 47% in 2002 and 54% the year before. All else being equal, you would expect the currency to decline by that amount eating up most of the oversized return on debt instruments. Ain't markets efficient sometimes?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (67805)	2/13/2003 1:00:01 PM
From: zonder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

In Iran if I am not mistaken The difference is probably that Turkey is a democracy and a market economy, a convertible currency with a free-floating rate (not pegged), no hindrance to foreign capital, no problems in conversion to local currency and back, and no capital gains tax if you hold to maturity. And an IMF program, as well as a rather important geopolitical position these days, prompting quite a bit of good will, support, and of course monetary aid from America. I bought into Turkish t-bills when the rates spiked to 59% about three weeks ago (currently at about 57.5%). During the same period, USD fell by about 2% against TRL. So we are up more than 5% in USD terms. The market is quite liquid as well. Last year's inflation rate was 30%, while TRL depreciated only 14% against the USD. This year, the target was 25% inflation, but with the realities of war, higher oil prices, etc it will probably be 35%. So I expect a serious USD (and real) return on these t-bills. If you are interested, I could send you some stuff tomorrow. (Off to yoga now :-)

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (67805)	2/16/2003 11:49:42 AM
From: Fred Levine	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Just got back to NY from Ixtapa, Mexico. I read a fascinating book by one of my favorite political critics, David Halberstam, "War in the Time of Peace." I was appalled by the lack of response of the UN to the slaughter in Rwanda, even tho there was sufficient information. I was appalled at the lack of response of the UN in Bosnia and Croatia while Muslims were being slaughtered. Indeed, UN peacekeepers were given no direction and were used as shields by Milosovic to do ethnic cleansing. In fact, the leader of intervention in saving the Muslims was Tony Blair, and later was Clinton. In fact, far too late IMO. Naturally, the Germans and the french resisted. The french were better under Chrirac than Mitterand when french troops were assaulted, but there was no humanitarian concern. The Germans and the french resisted US and UK efforts to prevent more ethnic cleansing. Even more appalling was how overt Milosovic was about his intentions. He was stopped in Kosovo, even with German and french tacit support, by the US bombing. That war, by the US and UK, with reluctant help from the Germans and french saved many more Muslim lives than "peace" would. Sun, this is from an old post of yours; >>The way I am looking at it, either you think drug dealing and killing civilians is good or you don't.<< I agree, and that is precisely why I support the elimination of Saddam. Either you think gassing innocent civilians is good or you don't, either you think putting your political opponents in front of a firing squad is good, or you don't, either you think placing your political enemies in a vat of acid is good or you don't. We disagree on whether we have the right or responsibility to intervene in domestic affairs of other countries. I wish the world would have intervened in the Turkish slaughter of the Armenians, in 1937 in Germany and more recently intervened earlier in Rwanda, Bosnia, Kosovo, among others. Zonder, I use the word "evil" to describe Saddam. We should not be afraid to make moral judgments. In fact, I was appalled at all the posts I read by the lack of concern for the treatment of Iraqis by Saddam. I am likewise appalled by the US support of Saddam, the contras, etc. etc. Finally, altho I am mainly in agreement with cho, cho--and I agree that Israel must recognize an independent Palestine, I remember Barak offering that, and not getting a response. Indeed, the Barak offer was censored in the Palestinian media. Continuing my (self)righteous indignation <g>, I am appalled by the lack of the UN and world response to the torture by Saddam. I also feel that the UN must intervene when crimes against humanity are being committed. However, given the proven impotence of the UN, and the cowardice of Germany and france, someone must intervene. Furthermore Zonder, you have repeatedly called the US a bully. You must understand that Americans pay a very steep price in terms of defense spending to protect the Muslims of Kosovo. I was again appalled at the American apathy to the slaughter of innocents in Bosnia, Croatia, and Kosovo-let alone the indifference to Rwanda. Please don't criticize by pointing out Israeli or American atrocities. In advance, I agree with you. Stick to what it takes for UN intervention. I apologize for this appalling post. fred