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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Hawkmoon who wrote (83680)2/14/2003 3:15:56 AM
From: Psycho-Social  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
 
The 64000 question: Will it bottom about 1wk later, or 3-5 wks later?
The reference was to an ancient game show of the same name, from a period where 64000 was a lot of money. BTW, it looks as if The Fear Factor measure of terrorism/threat related news flow may have bottomed out (terror related news is rated negatively) during the weekly period centered this past Monday, after having increased (i.e. dropped)20-fold from its early January level. That's not to say it will rise much, but, in the absence of a significant domestic attack of terrorism, which I don't expect before the Iraq invasion is under way, the intensity of fear monging is unlikely to be sustained at recent levels.

In assessing the longer term outlook, I rely primarily on a demographic based formula. The Demographic Profile will transition from mildly negative to mildly positive as the year passes.