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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (28123)	2/14/2003 2:05:25 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

You are spending so much time convincing us the move in gold is over... I'm about ready to go long again. Maybe next week, hoping the stock market does one final bump up before going over the cliff. I agree. This is getting absurd. Guy has a great call and lords it over on everyone for days, even weeks on end. Expects a 20 year bear market to only have a 3 year bull market. We all hear the warning, now what. Some reacted some didn't and some like me sold half. Well I wish I sold it all and I am not adding here, but If I did not have any I sure would be. We are right on 50Ma shares have bounced off this time and time again. Either one believes this is a bull market or not. If it is we have higher to go or at least we double top somewhere. I doubt anyone could get hurt too bad from this area withe decent SLs. Furthermore he is ignring a falling $, trade imbalances and half a dozen other factors on the FA side. In the stock market bull run, how many H&S patterns went up in smoke from bears attempting to play them. In this bear market how many inverse H&S patterns went kapoot? Almost all of them in both cases. I have every reason to belive gold will base a bit at this level or follow up the POG as it goes up this time. There is a technical basis for this off the MAs as well as a basis on pure FA. I am not rabid enough to think we are headed to 1200 POG, but the 400-600 area seems quite doable. On a retest of the highs I will unload what I have and watch. If instead we fall another 30% I will add and sell the bounce. Personally I think these alarm calls are now getting to the point of being personal as well as contrary. M

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (28123)	2/14/2003 2:27:02 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 36161

fingsterwald re:["You are spending so much time convincing us the move in gold is over"] ...I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. I view these boards as an electronic Party Line - where groups of people meet online to share opinions & thoughts about who, what, when, where, why & how - per the individual thread stock themes. If people want to act like James Sinclair and take their "MegaBull ball" home and not play with us... I guess that's their perogative. ...fortunately; history has shown who's been on the right & wrong side of that play for a couple years on SI now...as "some of us" have been there & done that thru the Nat Gas & OSX cycles of late. And if you read what I said vs. hearing what you wanted to hear... - you would have comprehended that I did NOT say the Broad Cycle "move in Gold was OVER - period" , but rather that this recent "too far, too fast & too easy" run up move; most certainly was...and that given the Double-Topish nature of the Stocks rolling over at the same nearly year old HUI 150-154 resistance level; along with the goldstocks disconnect/failure to follow Bullion to new higher highs...that one HAD to ANTICIPATE that it could possibly be "over" ....and exit this as a potential double-top end to the broad cycle....and at worst; a no-brainer exit/profit taking point to this most recent run. Now, whether we killed 2 birds (interim & broad cycle tops) with one (exit/sell) stone... only time will tell. I also said; that if indeed the broad cycle was not over; that the pause that refreshes, would in my opinion, be longer than many anticipate and that we would need more time than most anticipate for the upside catalysts for higher POG to play themselves out...ie: the USD, the Economy, War with Iraq etc. Given the volatility of the Gold Stocks - ie: HUI corrections of 40-50% in weeks off of tops; this is not, has never been & will NEVER be - a "buy & hold" sector - period. It truly amazes me; seeing so many of the old-timer Mega-Gold Cycle Bulls here, talk about holding thru the ups & downs...which is to be blunt - simply moronic. They are either complete and utter morons, with no appreciation as to how prior Goldstock runs have eneded, or they're pump & dumpers with a self-serving agenda - period...and if they are "selling" Goldstock newsletters - that's a rather obvious self-serving conflict of interest; or equally as well; if they're the CEO of a late-cycle exploration/royalty play. All you need to do is look how the Gold Stocks have collapsed at the end of every significant run like we've had here in the HUI...and you'd see that once they top - the trap door bottom is released and 40-50% collapses follow in days/weeks. Miss the top, average down just once after a Gold Stock top and you're staring down an abandoned mineshaft...and look out below. Some savy Gold pundits are missing a very salient point here... saying that the top can not be in yet; because we haven't reached prior resistance tops of $450 in POG, or 200 on the HUI, or XAU 150. As imho, it's equally, if not even more important - as to "how far we've moved" - as to if we've hit prior broad cycle highs". We've moved 50% in Bullion and have a 3.5 bagger in the HUI Gold Stock index...those are pretty good broad cycle moves imho. I think people also need to remove the era of the Great Depression due to the Govm't Fixed Price of Gold; as well as the Nixon closing the Gold Window period, that led to Gold/Silver's historic run thru 1980....those are anomalies... you can not guage how gold will perform during a mass deflation because of that "fix" during the Great Depression era... I think Prechter has a valid point on that... and the great $800 Gold/$50 Silver run thru 1979-80 was another anomaly - in which you neither make a case that Gold/Silver have been in a 20+ year bear market, or the case that gold/silver have significant upside remaining - because of those prior tops. Look at the last 25ish years...which included decades before the Gold Carry Trade entered with an artificial supression of Gold...and tell me how many times we've seen a Gold Cycle exceed a 50% move in Bullion and a 3.5 bagger return in the Gold Stock Index....ie: when hasn't this type of move been a prudent sell/exit point - or enough of a move to be a vomplete secular move vs interim cyclical move - within a broader bull cycle ? In these commodity cycles...I think due to the nature of the Globalization of Economies, markets, news etc...that cycles will be shorter in time than they ever were before...especially given the aggressiveness of Central Banks. We're seeing a lot of emotion and irrelevant history being thrown up to support this - "this time it's different, we're in a new paradigm, this is a new Multi-year/Decade Mega Bull Cycle" that's supposedly coming for Gold. Rule #1 - is this is not, has never been and will never be.... a buy & hold play. Cyclicals by absolute definition - are not. And the collapses post the ultimate Tops in Gold - have contracted as fast and as violently as any cyclical there is... he who hesitates, or freezes as a deer in headlights - is destined to become volatility road-kill in this game. This is not any place to be a buy & holder, or to hesitate. You can be wrong in selling too soon and survive in this game, but you can't hesitate and be wrong, or in doubt and survive in this game.