Roebear...
re:
["Comparing gold to oil is always risky."]
...my comparison; is that commodity oriented cyclicals are driven by the same fundamentals of contrarianism & sentiment.
Both Gold & Oil need to be bought when earnings, commodity prices & sentiment are terrible... sold when the opposite occurs...and imho; tops often form - just when the talk of new paradigms, extended, or mega-cycle, this time it's different" - arrives along with that 3rd wave of "new" (read LATE) investors.
And remember - I have NOT said that the entire move/cycle for GOLD is definitively OVER... I said that this interim move - most certainly was... on any sane Risk to Reward Metric...and that one must Anticipate the Double-Top Rollover AND the Disconnect/Failure that Goldstocks failed to follow Bullion higher - to new highs....that COULD be the END of the broad cycle... and sitting around "holding the bag" - with visions of $800 1980esque SugarPlums dancing in one's head - was NOT the way to play the "TRANSITION" that we are presently within... with ramping RISK and diminishing REWARDS to holding here.
This was the time to step aside... to let the economic & geopolitical catalysts for higher, or lower Gold unfold a bit more... to get another peek behind the curtain so to speak...before we bet whether the Wizzard is real, or not...
There is plenty of time to catch any "Mega-Cycle" in Gold... if one unfolds...but, given the HUI's "trap door" empty mineshaft corrective volatility on the downside... HOLDING THE BAG during significant Market TRANSITION's is NOT the play.
This is a HIGH Risk-LOW Reward Market Transition Point for Gold... the no-brainer was to Pocket the Profits and stand aside - giving the "Bag" to whom Sinclair refers to as - "those NEW to the Gold Story" (vbg)...and some of us did ~
(and trust me Roe, if we want their "bag" back... we'll damn well be able to take it from them any time we want it back...(vbg)
;)
["Comparing Gulf I to Gulf II is also risky."]
...maybe not. While this War may not be fought out in the Dessert and may occur within the Major Cities and will require a long physical presence... this one will solve the problem that the 1st left unresolved - resulting in the economic shocks delt by Sept 11th ...and will result in sending a very loud & clear message to Iran, to the Saudi's, to N Korea etc....it will remove "Oil" as a future (when,not if) "Weapon of Mass-Economic Destruction" from Global Terrorists and it will remove Saddams Black Market Oil Revenue - as the largest & hardest to trace, source of financing for Global Terrorists.
Cheap, plentifull OIL will be the byproduct of this campaign and will stand ready to help fuel Global Economic recovery...don't underestimate this powefull catalyst.
OPEC is broken...put a fork in 'em.
Bottomline: the "costs" may be greater for this Gulf War - but the "benefits" will be exponentially greater both economically & geopolitically.
We are facing Saddam again today - because we did not follow thru the first time on Bush I's watch.
We are facing a Nuclear No-Korea - because of Clinton & Jimmy Carter.
This is not a Demo vs Republican issue... although that's typically how the media and most people want to draw the line...
This is about a point in time - when Technology so powerfull, has reached a level to where, one EVIL Power with the Economic Resources available and the will to do EVIL - can forever change the course of the World and Man ....and that can no longer be ignored, or negotiated with thru an incompetant and Anti-American UN.
Didn't the UN just give the Iraqi's the Leadership on the UN Committee to lead Global Bio & Nuclear disarmament !?!?!?! - hello ?
The UN is another subject...
People love to remain in the utopian comfort of their SUV/Soccer Mom/Middle-Class Subdivison-lives...and there are only 3 fundamental reactions to any crisis...
- fight, take flight, or freeze.
And it's an expected reaction that so many just want to "freeze" - people always go into avoidance.
We don't want to run and we don't really want to fight, so we freeze... we do nothing... we hope that it will all just go away... but, it never does....and deep down, we know it won't...and we're actually happy (even if we don't say so publically) when other people (George Bush) take full responsibility and plow ahead doing what must be done...and if you don't think this is so... watch Public Opinion Polls and watch how many people you come in contact with at work, in your own family, friends etc - that were totally anti-War; do a "180" and will be wearing US Flag Buttons, Putting Ribbons on their SUV Antannae's, making a run on US Flags at Wal-Mart and jumping on the George Bush Wagon... AFTER the fact.... and the damn scheemy French & German SOB's will due the same damn thing...
Ultimately; you must fight, or take flight... you must address tough issues...as in the real world - they never just go away....freezing is never really an option.
It is clearly a WHEN, NOT IF scenario that Saddam unleashes, or supplies Terrorist with Nuclear, or Bio Weapons, that are unleashed on a mass-scale against America and/or our allies.
Thank God, we are obviously ANTICIPATING what is going to happen...versus waiting to react AFTER it happens.
Again, unquestionably; those most vocal about going to War with Iraq; would also be the most vocal for Bush's failure to "anticipate" , or act upon existing Intelligence Reports & Recommendations... should we ever awaken to CNN coverage of 200,000 dead from VX gas at the Indianapolis 500, or 50,000 dead in the NYC subway, or that our National Capital was rendered uninhabitable by a Nuclear Suitcase Bomb.
Hitler could not be ignored.
The aggression of Japan & Pearl Harbor could not be ignored.
The Soviet Cold War Machine & those missles in Cuba could not be ignored.
Saddam and North Korea can not and will not be ignored.
And the Bio & Nuclear Technology that has finally reached the hands of EVIL - most especially; can not be ignored.
THIS threat, in THESE hands...must be stopped NOW - at what ever political, or economic cost - period...and regardless of any & all debate....Thank God; that it is going to be - soon...and Thank God, that George Bush is sitting in the Oval Office right here, right now... in many ways he may not be the ideal President on many fronts; but on this issue...we have the right Man at the right Time...and Thank God, we do.
There are people who hate freedom, who hate the prosperity, who think Women should not be educated past the age of 8, that they must walk behind men, can't leave the house without their husband, can be killed by their husband on just he allegations of being unfaithfull etc... AND where are all of the Feminists on THAT ? Talk about the epitome of Liberal-Duplicity... These fanatic's despise all that America has, they hate freedom, they hate capitalism, they hate modern technology and they want to drag the world back 500 years into some dark, warped, cruel, brutual, sexist dogma they call a Religion... |
