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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Karen Lawrence who wrote (73947)2/14/2003 3:48:17 PM
From: Nadine Carroll  Respond to of 281500
 
A view from a British ex-peacenik:

My lefty friends are wrong

Phil Craig marched against cruise missiles, but now believes that Bush will be vindicated We were there for peace. We were there to confront the American cowboy warmonger. We were there to watch Emma Thompson on a lorry.

Actually, of the day I marched against cruise and Pershing missiles what I remember best is the bemused look on the faces of a group of NUM men as Emma performed her mobile political cabaret.

Anyone remember cruise and Pershing? Or Greenham Common? How about Frankie Goes to Hollywood? You only catch them on television archive shows now, but back in the early 1980s stopping Nato deploying those America missiles was the great anti-war cause. It was what you did if you were young, decent and liberal.

And how we decent young people hated Reagan. We all had that poster of him as Rhett Butler with Thatcher as Scarlett O’Hara: ‘She promised to follow him to the ends of the earth. He promised to organise it.’

No, he wasn’t funny; he was dangerous. He wanted to tear up détente, he wanted to confront what he naively called ‘the Evil Empire’. For Christ’s sake, he even went to Berlin and shouted, ‘Tear Down that Wall!’ Now, please understand, we’d all read Animal Farm and none of us was that keen on the Soviets, but at least they’d given their people decent healthcare, hadn’t they, and a fantastic underground system? Oh, and jobs for life, unlike the evil Thatcher. And what was the point of provoking them?

Like a lot of Oxbridge lefties I ended up in the BBC current affairs department. Eight years after carrying my CND banner through Hyde Park I found myself in Eastern Europe. Amazingly, the Wall had, indeed, been torn down. My assistant producer had family in the old East Germany and he wasn’t too pleased to hear of my peacenik past. Did I have any idea how much people like him had hated people like me? Did I know how crushingly miserable life had been in Eastern Europe, that the image of healthcare and jobs for life was strictly for the consumption of visiting Guardian reporters, and that the reality was grey, oppressive and corrupt? And, most of all, did I not know how much it had meant when Reagan challenged the Soviet overlord, matching their SS-20s with his own missiles, inviting them into a spending race that they could not win?

And that’s why I won’t be marching in Hyde Park this time around. Because America, even with a cowboy in charge, isn’t always wrong.

Two paragraphs, both true:

1) The United States has bankrolled and armed vicious regimes, refused to pressure Israel into making substantial territorial concessions in the West Bank, and has wilfully undermined international efforts to secure fair trade and environmental protections — Bad America, very bad.

2) For three generations the people of Europe have benefited hugely from the military and economic power of the United States. That power disposed of first the Nazis and then the Soviets. In the last decade it has chased a fascist dictator out of the Balkans and a reactionary death cult from its laboratories in Afghanistan — Good America, yes, very good America indeed, especially when you consider what the multilateral, United Nations, decent and liberal approach to world problems has given us in recent years: Rwanda, Srebrenica and a 12-year game of hide-and-seek in Iraq.

I like to imagine this weekend’s protesters sitting in a café in Jerusalem, Baghdad or Damascus one day, in a revitalised, democratised and peaceful Middle East, and realising that the turning point was the removal of Saddam. Optimistic? Naive? I suppose so. But some good will come out of regime-change in Iraq. Reformers in Tehran will be inspired, Hamas will lose its major paymaster, and the Saudi oligarchs will think twice before they fund any more jihad-preaching madrasas.

I’d say that the optimists have as good a chance of being right as the Pilgers and the Pinters, whose relentlessly negative predictions about recent Western military actions have been equally relentlessly wrong.

Madeleine Bunting — another decent liberal type — is a columnist for the Guardian. A few days into the bombing of the Taleban, she described Afghanistan as America’s new Vietnam. Last week she attempted to discount any cheering crowds that we might see on the streets of Iraq as ‘a few days’ jubilation staged for the TV cameras’. Well, Afghanistan wasn’t Vietnam, nor will it ever be, and CNN will not need to stage-manage any of the upcoming jubilations in Baghdad. Why would a liberal want to dismiss the liberation of the Iraqi people? Because, for the moment, anti-Americanism trumps all her other instincts.

From my experience (and believe me, I know, I have to work with these people), mainstream left-liberal opinion remains resolutely opposed to the war, however many nasties Hans and his team can dig up in Saddam’s back garden. It’s also very much inclined to believe anyone but Bush or Powell when it comes to evidence about the nasties. ‘Still not proven ...no clear risk’ is the consensus, even after Colin Powell’s tape recordings, and even after Jane Corbin’s excellent Panorama showed just how the inspectors get the run-around. Corbin also introduced the British public to the truly scary ‘Dr Germ’ — whose husband, it turns out, is in charge of Iraqi liaison with the UN inspectors. Who said Saddam didn’t have a sense of humour?

I’ve made enough current affairs programmes to understand — and to share — much of the case against America. But my feelings about the war on terror have been different from the start.

I was in Florida researching a book on the second world war on 11 September 2001. In the week after the attack the airlines were down, so I drove across rural Florida and Georgia, watching the flags come out and the patriotic messages go up on the billboards. People were calling the radio shows. One question dominated, the same one I heard in bars, shops and around dinner tables: ‘Why do they hate us so much?’ ‘It’s just a minority,’ I said.

I returned home and realised that it wasn’t a minority at all. To my astonishment, it included many of my liberal and left-wing friends, and writers and thinkers I admired. In that first week a cartoon in the Guardian painted President Bush as an ape dumbly trying to impersonate Winston Churchill, while the Independent offered a blind, deranged Bush firing his cowboy six-shooter and treading on a dead Arab. And all this before a single American bomb had been dropped on Afghanistan, and with 3,000 bodies — we still thought 10,000 then — warm beneath the rubble.

I called up a friend in the television business. We both said we were fearful. I was talking about Islamic terrorism, perhaps next time with a nuke, but it turned out he meant ‘the mad cowboy in the White House’. It struck me then that, after so many years of opposing American foreign policy, the Left could not see beyond Vietnam-era slogans. It could not recognise that a toxic stew of rogue regimes, apocalyptic weapons programmes and a perverted form of Islam posed a deadly threat. It posed a particularly deadly threat, come to think of it, to the values of the Left itself: to women’s rights and gay rights; to secularism, pluralism and multiculturalism. In fact, you name the liberal ‘ism’ and Osama was against it. But one ‘ism’ still trumped all: anti-Americanism.

The coming endgame with Saddam will — at the very least — rid the world of a proven danger, and lessen the chances that the next terrorist attack will take out millions not thousands. If war comes, will innocent Iraqis die? Certainly. More than the Americans will admit, fewer than the peaceniks will claim. But innocents have been dying for decades under this revolting regime.

We’re told that war will drive Muslims into the arms of al-Qa’eda. But remember what bin Laden said in the days after 9/11: ‘America is weak, it cannot take casualties, it ran away in Somalia.’ Throughout the 1990s the West responded tamely to attacks by bin Laden (the African embassy bombs, the USS Cole), to attacks by groups linked to Saddam (the Saudi barracks bomb, the assassination attempt on Bush’s father, the first World Trade Center attack), and to the continued refusal of Iraq to disarm as required by the Gulf war ceasefire. Ten years of this weakness only encouraged our enemies to be bolder.

Matthew Parris is a peacenik I respect. He cuts through the normal anti-war drivel — that it’s all about ‘Oil, God, Dad’ — and accepts that the core justification for disarming Iraq is fear of a bigger version of 9/11. He’s opposed to war because he doesn’t want to live in a world solely policed by the USA. Fair enough, that’s a real worry. But I’ll take it over the insecurity of living in an unpoliced world, or trusting my future to the men in blue helmets.

Good, decent people are painting their ‘No War’ signs; friends are talking excitedly about how they are going to get to the great demo (it’s going to be a ‘Woodstock moment’, apparently); even Nelson Mandela, the conscience of the bloody world, tells me I’m backing a bunch of racist oil-imperialists. The only thing to cheer me up was the ‘New Europe’ letter. Nelson may be against me, but at least Vaclav Havel understands. Which brings me back to Hyde Park in 1983.

Eastern Europeans know that when they suffered oppression it was America which tried to help them, and the Western Left who marched in tacit support of their oppressors. The politburo, as we later discovered, never believed that Nato would respond to the deployment of its SS-20s. It thought that the protests of Phil Craig and Emma Thompson and lots of other decent liberal people would make it impossible. It was wrong, and when faced with Western resolve it slowly realised that the game was up.

I still hope that Saddam will do the same and join Idi Amin for an ill-deserved retirement in Saudi Arabia. But I fear that all this marching will make him think that he still has a chance. And that could be more dangerous than any cowboy in the White House.

Phil Craig is a television producer and historian. His books on the second world war — Finest Hour and End of the Beginning — are published by Hodder & Stoughton.
spectator.co.uk



To: Karen Lawrence who wrote (73947)2/14/2003 3:49:24 PM
From: paul_philp  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
Here is Blix's report:

thestar.com

Mr. President:

Since I reported to the Security Council on Jan. 27, UNMOVIC has had two further weeks of operational and analytical work in New York and active inspections in Iraq. This brings the total period of inspections so far to 11 weeks. Since then, we have also listened on Feb. 5 to the presentation to the council by the U.S. Secretary of State and the discussion that followed. Lastly, Dr. ElBaradei and I have held another round of talks in Baghdad with our counterparts and with Vice-President Ramadan on Feb. 8 and 9.

Let me begin today's briefing with a short account of the work being performed by UNMOVIC in Iraq.

We have continued to build up our capabilities. The regional office in Mosul is now fully operational at its temporary headquarters. Plans for a regional office at Basra are being developed. Our Hercules L-100 aircraft continues to operate routine flights between Baghdad and Larnaca. The eight helicopters are fully operational. With the resolution of the problems raised by Iraq for transportation of minders into the no-fly zones, our mobility in these zones has improved. We expect to increase utilization of the helicopters. The number of Iraqi minders during inspections had often reached a ratio as high as five per inspector. During the talks in January in Baghdad, the Iraqi side agreed to keep the ratio to about one to one. The situation has improved.

Since we arrived in Iraq, we have conducted more than 400 inspections covering more than 300 sites. All inspections were performed without notice, and access was almost always provided promptly. In no case have we seen convincing evidence that the Iraqi side knew in advance that the inspectors were coming.

The inspections have taken place throughout Iraq at industrial sites, ammunition depots, research centres, universities, presidential sites, mobile laboratories, private houses, missile production facilities, military camps and agricultural sites. At all sites which had been inspected before 1998, re-baselining activities were performed. This included the identification of the function and contents of each building, new or old, at a site. It also included verification of previously tagged equipment, application of seals and tags, taking samples and discussions with the site personnel regarding past and present activities. At certain sites, ground-penetrating radar was used to look for underground structures or buried equipment.

Through the inspections conducted so far, we have obtained a good knowledge of the industrial and scientific landscape of Iraq, as well as of its missile capability but, as before, we do not know every cave and corner. Inspections are effectively helping to bridge the gap in knowledge that arose due to the absence of inspections between December 1998 and November 2002.

More than 200 chemical and more than 100 biological samples have been collected at different sites. Three-quarters of these have been screened using our own laboratory analytical capabilities at the Baghdad Centre (BOMVIC). The results to date have been consistent with Iraq's declarations.

We have now commenced the process of destroying approximately 50 litres of mustard gas declared by Iraq that was being kept under UNMOVIC seal at the Muthanna site. One-third of the quantity has already been destroyed. The laboratory quantity of thiodiglycol, a mustard gas precursor, which we found at another site, has also been destroyed.

The total number of staff in Iraq now exceeds 250 from 60 countries. This includes about 100 UNMOVIC inspectors, 15 IAEA inspectors, 15 air crew, and 65 support staff.

Mr. President:

In my Jan. 27 update to the council, I said that it seemed from our experience that Iraq had decided in principle to provide co-operation on process, most importantly prompt access to all sites and assistance to UNMOVIC in the establishment of the necessary infrastructure. This impression remains, and we note that access to sites has so far been without problems, including those that had never been declared or inspected, as well as to presidential sites and private residences.

In my last updating, I also said that a decision to co-operate on substance was indispensable in order to bring, through inspection, the disarmament task to completion and to set the monitoring system on a firm course. Such co-operation, as I have noted, requires more than the opening of doors. In the words of resolution 1441 it requires immediate, unconditional and active efforts by Iraq to resolve existing questions of disarmament either by presenting remaining proscribed items and program for elimination or by presenting convincing evidence that they have been eliminated. In the current situation, one would expect Iraq to be eager to comply. While we were in Baghdad, we met a delegation from the government of South Africa. It was there to explain how South Africa gained the confidence of the world in its dismantling of the nuclear weapons program, by a whole-hearted co-operation over two years with IAEA inspectors. I have just learned that Iraq has accepted an offer by South Africa to send a group of experts for further talks.

How much, if any, is left of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and related proscribed items and programs? So far, UNMOVIC has not found any such weapons, only a small number of empty chemical munitions, which should have been declared and destroyed. Another matter and one of great significance is that many proscribed weapons and items are not accounted for. To take an example, a document, which Iraq provided, suggested to us that some 1,000 tonnes of chemical agent were "unaccounted for." One must not jump to the conclusion that they exist. However, that possibility is also not excluded. If they exist, they should be presented for destruction. If they do not exist, credible evidence to that effect should be presented.

We are fully aware that many governmental intelligence organizations are convinced and assert that proscribed weapons, items and programs continue to exist. The U.S. Secretary of State presented material in support of this conclusion. Governments have many sources of information that are not available to inspectors. Inspectors, for their part, must base their reports only on evidence, which they can, themselves, examine and present publicly. Without evidence, confidence cannot arise.

Mr. President:

In my earlier briefings, I have noted that significant outstanding issues of substance were listed in two Security Council documents from early 1999 and should be well known to Iraq. I referred, as examples, to the issues of anthrax, the nerve agent VX and long-range missiles, and said that such issues "deserve to be taken seriously by Iraq rather than being brushed aside." The declaration submitted by Iraq on Dec. 7, despite its large volume, missed the opportunity to provide the fresh material and evidence needed to respond to the open questions. This is perhaps the most important problem we are facing. Although I can understand that it may not be easy for Iraq in all cases to provide the evidence needed, it is not the task of the inspectors to find it. Iraq itself must squarely tackle this task and avoid belittling the questions.

In my January update to the council, I referred to the Al Samoud 2 and the Al Fatah missiles, reconstituted casting chambers, construction of a missile engine test stand and the import of rocket engines, which were all declared to UNMOVIC by Iraq. I noted that the Al Samoud 2 and the Al Fatah could very well represent prima facie cases of proscribed missile systems, as they had been tested to ranges exceeding the 93.8-mile (150-kilometre) limit set by the Security Council. I also noted that Iraq had been requested to cease flight tests of these missiles until UNMOVIC completed a technical review.

Earlier this week, UNMOVIC missile experts met for two days with experts from a number of member states to discuss these items. The experts concluded unanimously that, based on the data provided by Iraq, the two declared variants of the Al Samoud 2 missile were capable of exceeding 150 kilometres in range. This missile system is therefore proscribed for Iraq pursuant to resolution 687 and the monitoring plan adopted by resolution 715.

As for the Al Fatah, the experts found that clarification of the missile data supplied by Iraq was required before the capability of the missile system could be fully assessed.

With respect to the casting chambers, I note the following: UNSCOM ordered and supervised the destruction of the casting chambers, which had been intended for use in the production of the proscribed Badr-2000 missile system. Iraq has declared that it has reconstituted these chambers. The experts have confirmed that the reconstituted casting chambers could still be used to produce motors for missiles capable of ranges significantly greater than 150 kilometres. Accordingly, these chambers remain proscribed.

The experts also studied the data on the missile engine test stand that is nearing completion and have assessed it to be capable of testing missile engines with thrusts greater than that of the SA-2 engine. So far, the test stand has not been associated with a proscribed activity.

On the matter of the 380 SA-2 missile engines imported outside of the export-import mechanism and in contravention of paragraph 24 of resolution 687, UNMOVIC inspectors were informed by Iraq during an official briefing that these engines were intended for use in the Al Samoud 2 missile system, which has now been assessed to be proscribed. Any such engines configured for use in this missile system would also be proscribed.

I intend to communicate these findings to the government of Iraq.

At the meeting in Baghdad on Feb. 8 and 9, the Iraqi side addressed some of the important outstanding disarmament issues and gave us a number of papers, for example regarding anthrax and growth material, the nerve agent VX and missile production. Experts who were present from our side studied the papers during the evening of 8 February and met with Iraqi experts in the morning of Feb. 9 for further clarifications. Although no new evidence was provided in the papers and no open issues were closed through them or the expert discussions, the presentation of the papers could be indicative of a more active attitude focusing on important open issues.

The Iraqi side suggested that the problem of verifying the quantities of anthrax and two VX-precursors, which had been declared unilaterally destroyed, might be tackled through certain technical and analytical methods. Although our experts are still assessing the suggestions, they are not very hopeful that it could prove possible to assess the quantities of material poured into the ground years ago. Documentary evidence or testimony by staff that dealt with the items still appears to be needed.

Not least against this background, a letter of Feb. 12 from Iraq's National Monitoring Directorate may be of relevance. It presents a list of 83 names of participants "in the unilateral destruction in the chemical field, which took place in the summer of 1991." As the absence of adequate evidence of that destruction has been and remains an important reason why quantities of chemicals have been deemed "unaccounted for," the presentation of a list of persons who can be interviewed about the actions appears useful and pertains to co-operation on substance. I trust that the Iraqi side will put together a similar list of names of persons who participated in the unilateral destruction of other proscribed items, notably in the biological field.

The Iraqi side also informed us that the commission, which had been appointed in the wake of our finding 12 empty chemical weapons warheads, had had its mandate expanded to look for any still existing proscribed items. This was welcomed.