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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (73992)	2/14/2003 5:47:33 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 281500

But, just because it's stupid, doesn't make it less likely to happen. Countries and leaders are constantly doing self-defeating, self-destructive things, making big gambles, doing wishful thinking on a vast scale. True. But not all forms of stupidly are equally likely. Refusing to see that conditions have really changed (eg the Catholic Church in the 16th century), or risking everything for glory (too many examples to mention) are examples of the self-destructive behavior you are talking about. But in Turkey's case, they would be abandoning their one superpower patron for the very dubious embrace of the French. This would be sublimely dumb. They may try to stall ("call us when you have another UN resolution") but they'll be on the US side in the end. They cannot afford not to be - and the public knows this as well as the politicians.