Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (27351)	2/15/2003 12:37:37 PM
From: Perry Ganz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

I was reading you and Gloops exchange about where you think the averages are going to be at the low this morning. I assumed that your targets were based on TA. I started wondering how they would jive with F/A. So I found a site that had historical averages on the S & P barra.com and plugged their data into a spread sheet. Their data only went back to 1977. They also list their data with and without negative P/E's I am using the with negative earnings in my calculations and all numbers are from Jan 31 when the S & P was at 855. Average P/E 18.65 2003 P/E 26.33 So 18.65/26.33=.7 And .7 X the S & P at 855 = 605 I remember you using 600 as a possible bottom on the S & P So cool the T/A and F/A jive But When I was plugging the numbers into my spreadsheet the P/E's got kinda crazy looking during the bubble so I ran the numbers again just using the data from 1977 to 1997 Average P/E 14.62 2003 P/E 26.33 So 14.62/26.33=.56 X the S & P at 855 = (GULP)475 I'm not an analyst (but I did stay at a Holiday Inn once)so use these numbers at your own risk, just thought I would pass them along and all criticisms are welcome Perry