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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JohnM who wrote (74096)2/14/2003 10:14:54 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 281500
 
Are these Bush's good old days?

By Dante Chinni
Commentary > Opinion
from the February 11, 2003 edition
The Christian Science Monitor

WASHINGTON – The last few weeks have not exactly offered a font of good news for the Bush administration. North Korea has the Bomb and is stamping its feet demanding attention. The terrorist threat level is orange. Congress isn't enamored with the president's tax-cut plan. The UN Security Council seems largely unmoved on Iraq, despite Colin Powell's evidentiary hearing in New York last week. And the economy is moving more slowly than the Beltway at rush hour.

Even the good news isn't that good. Last week the Department of Labor announced that the unemployment rate had fallen to 5.7 percent in January. But economists quickly pointed out that the reason there were fewer layoffs after the holidays is that there were fewer hires during them.


The really bad news, however, is that this may be as good as it gets for a while for this administration. A series of problems, some of the administration's own making, are lining up outside the door of the Oval Office, and each is going to demand the president's attention. And how he handles them will likely determine whether he remains in office for an additional four years.

First and foremost, there's the prospect of war with Iraq. If it happens, and the drift toward it seems almost unstoppable at this point, lives will be lost and reciprocal terrorist attacks may follow. And even if everything goes to plan and it ends swiftly in the US's favor, the problems in Iraq will have just begun. Democracies don't bloom overnight, particularly in a factionalized nation with no real democratic tradition. Any victory, however complete, will lead to years of difficult work.

The president may have little choice on this score. If the case Mr. Powell laid out was true and accurate, then something must be done in Iraq sooner or later. But it doesn't make the aftereffects any easier.

Mr. Bush's larger problems, though, may come domestically. A few things tend to happen at home even when wars are half a world away.

First, the economy tends to take a slight dip. The president's father knows this well. In 1991, the year of the Gulf War, the nation's gross domestic product dipped half a percent in constant dollars. For a nation already trying to get its sluggish economy moving, this could be very painful. Fuel prices, those magical X-factors that affect the cost of everything from toothpaste to hamburgers, will likely rise. The stock markets, which hate uncertainty, will likely continue their stumbling.

Second, the public starts to turn its eyes homeward and take stock. And here is where Bush has serious issues to address.

The fact of the matter is that this president never had much of a domestic agenda beyond the tax cut he proposed in his campaign. Bush's education proposals have been criticized by school administrators, who may like them in theory but whose districts lack the money to make serious improvements. His prescription-drug program for seniors has received at best a lukewarm reception on Capitol Hill.

He is vulnerable on environmental issues, where his biggest initiative is funding to make hydrogen-powered cars a reality someday.

Meanwhile, the states worry about falling revenues and warn they may have to raise taxes even as the president offers them little aid and proposes another round of federal tax cuts. Those cuts have confused even some of the GOP faithful, who think the plan makes the president and the party appear that they are helping the rich at the expense of everyone else. Even the economists the president brought in to support his plan say it probably doesn't do much to stimulate the economy and is more about restructuring the code. And, of course, under all of this is the promise of rising deficits - even the White House estimates a shortfall of more than $300 billion, and that is without figuring in the cost of any war.

Bush still has time to do something about all of this, of course, but he's shown no interest in changing direction. In his first two years in the White House and his previous time in the governor's mansion in Texas, Bush has developed a kind of hard-headed resolve. He pushes, and if the other side doesn't give, he pushes more.

This approach has, in fact, won him admirers who claim he is being "Reaganesque" in his handling of the office. There are, however, a few key differences between Ronald Reagan and the Oval Office's current occupant. Mr. Reagan, the former actor, knew how to work and control the crowd. He specialized in soaring rhetoric. He knew how to appear larger than life. Bush is Joe President. He knows larger than life is out of his range and aims his image at being a regular guy. This approach works well in crisis when people want a leader to stand behind, but not so well when people are generally unhappy and need someone to lead them.

And though times have been bad for the past few months, if this president doesn't make some changes he may someday look back on this time as the good old days.

Editor's note: Dante Chinni, a regular Monitor contributor since 1999, today begins a political column that will appear on the second and fourth Tuesday of the month. Mr. Chinni is a senior associate with the Pew Project for Excellence in Journalism, in Washington, D.C. His work has appeared in such other publications as The Washington Post Magazine, The New Republic, and The Economist. He writes on topics ranging from the media to politics to culture and the connections among them, and strives to look beyond the back-and-forth of debate and examine the underlying ideas with color and common sense.


csmonitor.com



To: JohnM who wrote (74096)2/15/2003 3:09:59 PM
From: Win Smith  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
Ok, compulsive as I am I looked this up again. You and Bill were discussing this last May when I piped in about the Garment book, Message 17451269 . Though I didn't note Sears , being somewhat terse at the time. Bill had originally noted the old '92 Atlantic story on the G-man theory, theatlantic.com , which actually seems to be holding up pretty well, theory wise. Since then, John Dean's book has come and gone, according to foi.missouri.edu Dean hypothesized Buchanan, Ray Price, Steven Bull, or the late Ziegler. Don't remember much about Bull, but the others don't seem all that likely. Al "Sinister Forces" Haig doesn't seem that probable either, though from what I remember of "The Final Days" he did help ease Nixon out in the end game. Timothy Noah at Slate, who seems to be following this, argues for the Atlantic article FBI theory and specifically one Mark Felt in slate.msn.com and slate.msn.com ; sounds like as good a theory as any to me.



To: JohnM who wrote (74096)2/15/2003 4:30:35 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 281500
 
What Role is the Oil Industry Playing in Bush's Drive to War?

by Ralph Nader

Published on Friday, February 14, 2003 by CommonDreams.org

As the drive to war in Iraq races toward a precarious endgame, the lead-footed Bush Administration shows no signs of heeding to the caution flags flying in from all sides.

Urgings to go slow are not just a phenomena of "Old Europe." At home, retired General Anthony Zinni, a consultant to Colin Powell, and many other retired generals, admirals, and officers have warned about the potential for "blowback." They argue convincingly that this pending war diverts and distracts from the war on terror and is likely to catalyze further acts of terror against the citizens and security of the United States. Retired general Wesley Clark told the Senate Armed Services Committee that a war would "super-charge recruiting for Al Qaeda."

With U.N. Security Council Members France, Russia, and China still unconvinced of the need for immediate military action, international support for "preemptive strike" seems unlikely to materialize. Even governments that support a U.S.-led war in Iraq, such as Britain, Turkey, Spain, do not have the support of their people. If the U.S. chooses to go it alone or with the help of only a few allies, the already present strains of international anti-Americanism will become even more virulent.

Meanwhile, the Bush Administration has been less than forthcoming in providing the public estimates of the actual costs of a war, both in terms of troops and money. The American Academy of Arts and Sciences estimates that over 10 years, war and the reconstruction of Iraq could cost as much as $2 trillion - almost the equivalent of the entire annual federal budget. In the New York Review of Books, Yale Professor William D. Nordhaus puts the low estimate at $120 billion and a high estimate at $1.6 trillion, given a combination of "different adverse effects." Despite the costs and dangers to innocent civilians, one powerful administration constituency stands to benefit from a unilateral war in Iraq that results in a U.S.-led regime change. That constituency is the oil industry, whose slick influence and crude ambitions permeate the administration from top to bottom. Both the President and the Vice President are former oil executives. National Security Adviser Condaleeza Rice is a former director of Chevron. President Bush took more than $1.8 million in campaign contributions from the oil and gas industries in the 2000 election. All told, 41 members of the administration had ties to the oil industry.

U.S. oil companies, banned from Iraq for more than a decade, would like nothing more than to control the production of Iraqi oil. With reserves of 112.5 billion barrels, Iraq sits on top of 11% of the world's oil. Vice President Dick Cheney and Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ill.) are two of the many politicians who have the question of who will control Iraq's petroleum on their minds.

Plans for control of the oil fields are already being laid. The Wall Street Journal reported on January 16 that officials from the White House, State Department and Department of Defense have been meeting informally with executives from Halliburton, Slumberger, ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco and ConocoPhillips to plan the post-war oil bonanza. But no one wants to talk about it. Larry Goldstein, president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation told the Journal, "If we go to war, it's not about oil. But the day the war ends, it has everything to do with oil." The American people have a right to know what role the oil industry is playing in Bush's increasingly frenetic drive to war. What is being discussed in these meetings regarding the oil industry's designs on this gigantic pool of petroleum?

The American people also have a right to know what was discussed in the numerous secret meetings Vice President Cheney's national energy task force held with oil and gas executives. Cheney has been adamantly secretive about these meetings, despite repeated attempts by Congress and public interest groups to learn what was discussed.

Cheney's energy policy casts as inevitable that we will have to import 17 million barrels of oil a day (two-thirds of our supply) by 2020 and subsequently recommends "that the President make energy security a priority of our trade and foreign policy." It does not recommend specific goals for conservation anytime in the near future. Just as Cheney refused to meet with anybody but industry cronies in formulating the national energy policy, Bush is now refusing to entertain the counsel of anyone but war hawks. Repeated entreaties by national peace groups, including veterans, clergy, and business groups, for meetings with the President have fallen on ears deaf to anything but the constant beating of war drums.

While it would be naive to label this purely as a war for oil, the apparent connections are enough to raise some serious questions. And when coupled with the Administration's frighteningly stubborn insistence on ignoring the caution signs pouring in from all sides, those questions become even more serious.

###

commondreams.org



To: JohnM who wrote (74096)2/15/2003 5:26:15 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 281500
 
~OT~...Mark Crispin Miller Takes Aim at Newspapers

Media Critic Says Bush Gets Easy Ride

By Ari Berman
NEW YORK -- Opinion
Editor & Publisher Online
FEBRUARY 13, 2003

Mark Crispin Miller, author of The Bush Dyslexicon and Boxed In: The Culture of TV, wishes he could still talk only of television, unleashing barbs like "Big Brother Is You Watching."

Now he can't. In Miller's view, America's great independent newspaper tradition is in peril. Scandals fly under the radar, politicians get off easy, and President Bush garners comparisons to Winston Churchill while Miller himself gets panned in The Washington Post and snubbed by The New York Times.

That's why Miller, who also teaches media studies at New York University, has returned with a vengeance, unveiling a provocative, funny, and deeply disturbing one-man show, "Bush Are Us," at a small New York theater. While the mainstream press still wants nothing to do with it, the first three shows have sold out, with at least one more planned for early March. Can Miller do for political standup what Michael Moore did for Flint, Mich.?

As he describes it in the show, one of Miller's formative moments came in 1984, after watching the second Walter Mondale/Ronald Reagan presidential debate, in which, he recalls, Reagan rambled incoherently but later won the election decisively. Now he finds the same linguistic butchery/widespread acclaim evident in the presidency of George W. Bush, whose personal failings, he charges, the press rarely attempts to expose in a post 9-11, pre-Iraq war atmosphere.

"The Founding Fathers gave the press constitutional protection ... because democracy requires an independent press to keep citizens aware of their government," Miller says. Newspaper reporting of the war on terrorism, however, has left many important questions unanswered and stories untold, Miller believes. He says exhaustive coverage is needed of recently passed anti-terrorism legislation to inform the public how their civil liberties are imperiled.

Instead of focusing on substantive issues, newspapers mimic TV in emphasizing aesthetics and atmosphere in their coverage of politics. In the 2000 election, Al Gore's "wooden" behavior got as much play as his policy positions. Already newspaper coverage of the 2004 Democratic presidential field relies on familiar characterizations: "John Kerry's hair seems to be getting more coverage than his political beliefs," Miller says. His maxim is simple, if ironic: political coverage should focus on politics.

Miller believes assaults on the "liberal media" by Ann Coulter, Bernard Goldberg, and others have chilled investigative reporters. Now, even centrist journalists must attempt to avoid "biased" accusations. Thus, while the press bombarded President Clinton on Whitewater and a host of other scandals, the Bush White House has successfully swept a number of controversies under the table, Miller says.

To be fair, Miller acknowledges that hard-hitting reporting takes its toll on a journalist, requiring tremendous stamina. Early last year, when Dana Milbank of The Washington Post began mentioning supposed untruths supplied by the Bush Administration in his articles, the White House stopped returning his calls. "There's a reluctance by many journalists to open an enormous can of worms by challenging the President," Miller says.

For the sake of brevity, newspapers often turn Bush's mangled sentences into perfect prose. "If Bush screws up, they're just going to fix it," Miller says. The public rarely sees the true man, Miller argues. Bushisms like, "The goals for this country are ... a compassionate American for every citizen," remain submerged beneath fawning news stories that make the President look stoic and resolute, Miller says.

Even the oft-labeled "liberal" newspapers can fall victim to touch-up jobs, Miller maintains. He refers to a recent Washington Post profile of News York Times columnist Paul Krugman, which described how Times Executive Editor Howell Raines barred Krugman from accusing Bush of "lying" during his presidential campaign. Yet on the same op-ed page, conservative columnist William Safire called Senator Hillary Clinton a "congenital liar."

"What if Bush is really lying?" Miller proposes. "You can't say it."

Miller fumes that such realities show how right-wing influence on the media has been growing since the late 1960s. Since then, conservative think tanks and massive influxes of money have turned the journalistic tide à droite, he says.

"The theory of bias against the right-wing is a cult-like myth that honest conservatives like William Kristol will admit doesn't exist," Miller says. "I bet Karl Rove would too -- he's got the press wrapped around his little finger."

Source: Editor & Publisher Online

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ari Berman (aberman@editorandpublisher.com) is a reporter for E&P.

editorandpublisher.com