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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: abuelita who wrote (13000)2/15/2003 1:08:37 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
What about the death toll?

By Derrick Z. Jackson
Columnist
The Boston Globe
2/14/2003

BETH OSBORNE DAPONTE is concerned that the White House has not told Americans how it will avoid massive deaths to civilians in an invasion of Iraq. Her concern should be alarming. Daponte was the woman who a decade ago was nearly fired by the government for her estimates on the Iraqi civilian death toll in the first Gulf War. ''Right now, it's just like it was in 1991,'' Daponte said by telephone. ''People were sold on the idea of clean war.''

Daponte showed how dirty the first war really was. She was an analyst in the Census Bureau's international division, whose normal job is to estimate the populations of other nations. Up until then, the senior President Bush, Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, and the Pentagon refused to make any public estimates of the Iraqi dead.

Daponte, a Middle East analyst, was assigned to come up with an estimate. She estimated that a total of 158,000 Iraqis were killed, with only 40,000 of them being soldiers in battle. The far greater death toll came afterward; Daponte estimated that 70,000 Iraqis died through easily preventable diseases that were suddenly made lingering and lethal by the bombing by the United States and its allies of water and power supplies, sewage systems, and roads.

Of the estimated 158,000 deaths, Daponte concluded that nearly 40,000 of the victims were women and 32,000 were children.

After the Associated Press ran the estimate in January 1992, Daponte was told by the Census Bureau that she was going to be fired on the basis of issuing ''false information,'' ''untrustworthiness,'' and ''unreliability.''

The Census Bureau backed down after Daponte received swift and strong support from civil libertarians and statisticians. A year later she published an even more refined report with even more grotesque numbers. In a study published in the quarterly publication of the Physicians for Social Responsibility, Daponte estimated the final death toll to be 205,500. The war itself resulted in 56,000 deaths to soldiers and 3,500 to civilians. Another 35,000 people died in internal postwar fighting. The biggest single number of deaths again was to civilians after the destruction of the nation's infrastructure: 111,000.

In Daponte's second analysis, the number of women who died from health effects of the war went down, to 16,500, but the number of children who died soared to 70,000. In addition, 8,500 senior citizens died. If that number is anywhere close to true, that means that far more Iraqi children died than Iraqi soldiers.

Daponte now teaches population and policy at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. Her estimates tell a story of two wars. ''What I showed was that it was true, we did minimize casualties from direct war effects,'' she said. ''There were relatively few deaths from hitting wrong targets. But what I also showed was the indirect casualties could be much greater. It is no different than as when the infrastructure of a city with the population of Washington or Boston is taken away by an earthquake.''

Those deaths occurred in what was a war meant only to force Iraq out of Kuwait and back behind its own borders. The war that the junior President Bush is threatening promises to strike deep into the heart of Iraq. Any sane person would bet that the civilian casualties this time will be much worse.

Because of that prospect, Daponte thinks the White House owes the nation projections of the damage to Iraq so Americans can make their own calculations of whether we have done everything to avoid war. Projections will be tough to come by: The White House has returned to Bush family control, and Dick Cheney has moved up from secretary of defense to vice president. Secrecy has already been established as a hallmark of the Bush administration, and if the Census Bureau back then was prepared to squash truth seekers like Daponte, one can assume that the current corps of government demographers are already looking over their shoulders.

''If you are not having a discussion about civilian casualties, we are probably not having a true discussion of whether this war is the best thing we can do,'' Daponte said. ''If our goal is to eliminate Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, I haven't seen any detailed plans on how we do that without destroying the infrastructure for the people of Iraq. . . . The idea of deaths in the drumbeat toward war just isn't there. It isn't part of the discourse on either side. It's as if the less that it is talked about, the assumption is zero deaths.''

Daponte said if Americans make the leap into war with that kind of calculation, ''that's the incorrect leap.'' When she says ''we need to be very careful about not buying everything that the government is saying,'' she is her own best evidence. When she did her calculations a decade ago, the government's response was to ''kill the messenger. They wanted to keep that discussion off the table.''

Derrick Z. Jackson's e-mail address is jackson@globe.com.

© Copyright 2003 Boston Globe Newspaper Company.

boston.com



To: abuelita who wrote (13000)2/16/2003 1:44:02 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 89467
 
Millions Worldwide Protest Iraq War

Coordinated Effort Yields Huge Turnout in Europe

By Glenn Frankel
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, February 16, 2003; Page A01

LONDON, Feb.15 -- Several million demonstrators took to the streets of Europe and the rest of the world today in a vast wave of protest against the prospect of a U.S.-led war against Iraq.

The largest rallies were in London, Rome, Berlin and Paris -- the heart of Western Europe -- where the generally peaceful demonstrations illustrated the breadth of popular opposition to U.S. policies among traditional allies. But there were also protests in dozens of other cities on five continents, from Canberra to Oslo and from Cape Town to Damascus, in an extraordinary display of global coordination.

In London, a sea of protesters estimated by police at more than 750,000 flooded into Hyde Park and clogged streets for several miles on a crisp, clear day in what observers and organizers said was probably the largest political demonstration in British history. It was aimed not just at President Bush but also at Britain's prime minister, Tony Blair, who has been Bush's staunchest ally in the campaign against Iraq but who is besieged by opposition at home from virtually every part of the political spectrum.

Blair, in a speech earlier in the day, insisted he would stand his ground. But he also said Britain would wait for the next interim report from U.N. inspectors on Feb. 28 before seeking a Security Council resolution authorizing military action.

Nearly 1 million people turned out in Rome, where Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has also supported the U.S. position. Between 300,000 and 500,000 people demonstrated in Berlin, at the largest rally since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. About 100,000 demonstrators poured through the streets of Paris. Germany and France have emerged as the most vocal opponents of military action against Iraq.

Demonstrators in London sang, chanted and shouted slogans while carrying flags, banners and posters with slogans ranging from "Bush and Blair Wanted for Murder" to "Make Tea, Not War."

"Tony, Listen to the People," pleaded one poster, while another read, "I'm American and I Care -- Please Don't Think That We Are All Like Bush." Posters calling for "Free Palestine" were also widespread.

The demonstrators seemed to represent a cross-section of modern British society. There were entire families -- fathers and mothers with small children in tow -- and elderly people moving slowly but deliberately. Some wore costumes and some were in jeans. There were veteran activists and people who said they had never been on a march before.

"We explained to them what this was about and they wanted to come," said Julie Isherwood, whose 4-year-old twins, Jack and Robert, walked beside her with hand-lettered signs reading, "Boys Against War."

Lisa Rosen, a lawyer from New York who has lived here for five years, said she felt a strong sense of anti-Americanism from many in the crowd. "Some of my American friends decided not to come, but I thought it was important to show that you can be pro-American and antiwar at the same time," she said.

Radicals and moderates shared the speaker's platform. Ken Livingstone, the mayor of London and a longtime left-wing activist, called Bush "a stooge for oil interests" and said he was presiding over "the most corrupt and racist American administration in over 80 years."

"This is a man who has sent his own soldiers to die [but] who got his daddy to get him out of national service," said Livingstone. "Where I come from we call that cowardice."

Charles Kennedy, leader of the minority Liberal Democrats, the only mainstream British party to oppose the prospective war, said he was not anti-American but was "deeply worried" by the administration.

"Given the evidence from Dr. Blix yesterday, there can be no just or moral case for war against Iraq," Kennedy added, referring to U.N chief weapons inspector Hans Blix.

Jesse L. Jackson, who arrived here Friday from the United States, said it was not too late to prevent military action. "Turn up the heat," he told the crowd. "I say to Tony Blair, please take a step back from war: Hear the voices of Britain. This war may be your legacy, Mr. Blair. Surely this is not what you want."

A beleaguered Blair, speaking earlier at a Labor Party conference in Glasgow, Scotland, warned that the international community still needed to be prepared to confront Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

"If we show weakness now, if we allow the plea for more time to become just an excuse for prevarication until the moment for action passes, then . . . the menace, and not just from Saddam, will grow," he said. "The authority of the U.N. will be lost, and the conflict when it comes will be more bloody." Blair said demonstrators were expressing an "entirely understandable hatred of war," but he added, "If there are 500,000 on that march, that is still less than the number of people whose deaths Saddam has been responsible for."

In Rome, the protesters massed in the city center in an atmosphere that was half-demonstration, half-carnival, the Reuters news agency reported. Young and old marched arm in arm, some wrapped in rainbow peace flags, while marching bands played and whistles blew.

In Brussels, tens of thousands of protesters braved freezing temperatures and fierce winds. Many residents placed white handkerchiefs in the windows of homes, stores and pubs as an expression of support.

Patricia Tarabelsi, 23, an American student, said she couldn't help but feel uneasy as anti-American sentiment has intensified in Europe. "It makes you feel like your country's a target," she said, "and I don't really think Americans back home realize just how angry the world is at us right now."

There were also demonstrations in Ukraine, Bosnia, Cyprus, Ireland, the Netherlands, Austria, Spain, Greece, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Japan, India, Bangladesh, Hungary, South Korea, Australia, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Thailand. Many of the rallies were organized by peace groups around the world, with the Internet playing a key role in the coordination.

In Baghdad, according to the Associated Press, tens of thousands of Iraqis, some carrying Kalashnikov assault rifles, demonstrated in support of Hussein. "Our swords are out of their sheaths, ready for battle," read one of hundreds of banners carried by marchers along Palestine Street, a broad avenue in Baghdad. In Damascus, Syria, protesters chanted anti-U.S. and anti-Israel slogans as they marched to the People's Assembly building.

About 2,000 antiwar protestors, both Jews and Palestinians, marched peacefully in central Tel Aviv for about 90 minutes early tonight. Many waved Israeli and Palestinian flags and carried pictures of gas masks and placards reading, "Drop Bush Not Bombs."

"This is part of the war on Islam," said Ibrahim Housseni, 26, an unemployed Palestinian from East Jerusalem. "Why attack Saddam and not Khamenei, Assad or Sharon?" he said, referring to the leaders of Iran, Syria and Israel. "They all suppress their people. Bush should not hide his reasons -- this war is against Islam and for oil."

"The U.N. report shows they [the Iraqis] are not hiding anything," said Yaron Levy, a Tel Aviv restaurant owner. "Bombing a country to get one man is not exactly conventional. This is nonconventional warfare."

A small counter-demonstration of about 20 people from the ruling Likud Party's youth wing heckled the antiwar protesters, shouting, "Saddam is the next Hitler!" and handing out "No War" signs with the "No" ripped off.

An antiwar protest outside the U.S. Embassy in Moscow drew an estimated 1,000 people, mostly middle-aged or elderly supporters of the Communist Party.

Ludmilla Likhikh, 52, a factory worker, accused the United States of hypocrisy, saying it should focus on disarming itself. "America is looking for arms in Iraq while it has so many of its own," she said. "America is the number one terrorist nation."
________________________________________

Correspondents John Ward Anderson in Jerusalem, Sharon LaFraniere in Moscow and Philip P. Pan in Beijing and special correspondent Steven Gray in Brussels contributed to this report.

© 2003 The Washington Post Company

washingtonpost.com