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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jjstingray who wrote (66555)	2/15/2003 11:57:31 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

That action on Friday tells me there are more shorts in the market than we think. You know I was looking for a rally last week. I got hosed on seeing Monday as the start of it, which was a headfake, then I thought the Thursday move was the start of it. We'll see. This is so classic. My gut says rally but the charts don't very well support that. This will keep me timid. My approach is gonna be this: I still think Thursday was the start of a leg up. If however, we get back down to more than 80% retracement of this move, then we are going below the Oct lows very quickly and that will be worth: 1) Getting out of the long before we get any further down than that 80% retrace. This will make the loss minute. 2) Getting short in decent size. I would then want to cash in half on the first real test below the Oct lows, say, 2-4% below it. After that, we'll see. For now, my rally hat is still on.

To: jjstingray who wrote (66555)	2/17/2003 1:53:03 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

I still think there is a decent chance we die fairly quickly next week. From an e-wave standpoint the choppy action of the last couple of weeks is either an ending pattern or a running correction. If its the latter, it should finish up with a 'c' up which will look like the start of a new uptrend but will not get very far. I give each scenario about a 50-50 chance here. The thing is I really don't see much hope for it being an ending pattern. There are some charts which are quite broke and price will have some formidable ninja resistance now. It will take a major ramp up in volume for us to crack this downtrend IMO.