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To: skinowski who wrote (66557)	2/16/2003 8:23:45 PM
From: illyia	Respond to of 209892

Nice.

To: skinowski who wrote (66557)	2/16/2003 9:18:30 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 209892

From Brian Thanks to Skinowski for the compliment (if he even hear's this). I have been really lazy since the high on December 2 on working the relations between waves - I'll have to get on that again as we get going on this decline. I looked at a another chart list on StockCharts on Friday that has the rise from thrusday's lows on the Dow counted impulsively. But I have looked at his counts for a long time and just don't understand them - there are other counts that seem to fit much better: stockcharts.com But I agree with Skinowski that the rise on late in the week looks corrective. On friday I thought that the decline from the morning high of 831 was 5 waves, but on closer inspection it looks like 3 (to be specific it looks like a double three). I guess it could be either. I covered my spy shares at 812 just because the last time a decline like this traced out (in late December) I held too long, so this time at the first hint of a larger rally I was out. But I'm still about 40% short with index puts and individual stocks. The count I posted on Friday is still uncertain - it could be that way or not, there's no way to know yet. I think 865-868 is significant, because it is where the last correction ended and it's where the neckline for the 3-month H&S is. If the S&P broke above there I would buy spy shares to hedge my short positions because it would mean that this move could be correcting from the January high at 935 or the December high at 955. Until then it will be a search for the right point to go short with spy's again. If it acquires an impulsive character, than – and only than – it should get serious respect. Exactly. It hasn't do so yet, and this next week should be decisive in that respect. Brian

To: skinowski who wrote (66557)	2/16/2003 9:26:15 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 209892

Additional thoughts from Brian Mish - EWI has been hinting that they think that the lows this last week may have been the end of wave 1 the December highs (955 on the S&P). The use the S&P Small Cap 600 as an example. But they also say: Our most important indicator, the Elliott wave pattern, provides no help. The near-term pattern is ambiguous. That is, the pattern can be acceptably labeled several different ways that would imply differing conclusions to the short-term market action. (...) It is near impossible to label the short-term subdivisions with any degree of confidence at the moment. Guessing would simply cause more confusion. These may be one of those times where EW doesn't offer any new clarity. As his chart suggests, this could be a correction from 935, as it could also be a correction from 955 ad 865 (where hae the last correction - a Flat - ending on Feb. 3rd. But here is one reason why I hesitate to go long: tinyurl.com Until this is taken care of in the Spring (April-May?), I'll stay fully short, somewhat short, or hedged. Just MHO, Brian